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Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in MI; Bush tied with Clinton

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AUGUST 20, 2015 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414

Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in Michigan Trump and Bush tied with Clinton

EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has opened up a 9 percent lead over presumptive Democratic nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (45%-36%) while both Jeb Bush (41%-40%) and Donald Trump (40%-39%) have a narrow 1 per cent lead, well within the margin of error of the latest Mitchell-FOX 2 Michigan Poll. The poll of N=1,310 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night August 10, 2015, the night before Donald Trump spoke at a packed Republican Party rally in Birch Run, by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.7% at the 95% level of confidence.

“There are several important pieces of information in this poll: First, Hillary Clinton’s negative publicity has hurt her with Democrats, independents, women and younger voters. Second, the new face of Marco Rubio is much stronger at this point than either the new face of Donald Trump or the old name of Jeb Bush. Third, Trump is for real as a presidential candidate, he is polling as well as Jeb Bush, the brother and son of a Republican president and clearly the establishment candidate in Michigan,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications said. As is usually the case, the Republicans lead with white voters while Clinton leads with non-white voters, especially African-Americans who comprised 14% of the sample.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting; By party: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both get 12% of the Democratic vote while Trump gets 15%. Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 87% of the vote to Bush’s 81% and Trump’s 71%. However, the percentage of undecided Republicans is much higher with Trump (25%) than with Rubio (9%) and Bush (16%). Rubio leads with the key independent voters by 20% (48%-27%) while Bush leads by 11% (35%-24%) and Trump is tied (40%-40%).

“Clinton has a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 12%-15% of the vote to Republicans. Meanwhile, she is getting only 4% of the Republican vote against Rubio and Bush and 5% against Trump. She is also doing poorly among independents where she trails 11%-20% with Bush and Rubio and where she is tied with Trump,” Mitchell said.

By gender: Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She only leads by 4% against Bush and 5% against Rubio. Against Trump, she leads by 13%. With men, Rubio leads by 24%, Trump by 15%, and Bush by only 3%.

“With the most traditional candidate, Bush, there is very little difference by gender. However, there are much greater differences among Rubio and Trump voters. The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women. The percentage of undecided men, the voters most likely to vote for a Republican, is higher with men than women in all three trial ballot tests; with Bush, there are 6% more undecided men than women, with Rubio there are 8% more, and with Trump 9% more undecided men than women. Undecided men are far more likely to end up voting Republican than undecided women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age: · While Rubio leads by 21% with 18-39 year olds, Bush is only up 1% and Trump trails by 20%. · However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 12%, Rubio by 9%, while Bush trails by 16%. · All three Republicans are strong with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump are up by 27% and Bush by 21%. · All three trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 21%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 8%. · All three GOP candidates are behind with 60-69 year olds. Again, Trump is behind by a bigger margin, 15%, while Bush trails by 6% and Rubio by just 2%.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters. Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds. However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 40% worse than Rubio. Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic voters,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area: · Clinton leads by 90% in Detroit over all three Republicans. · In Wayne County outside Detroit, Rubio (+27%) and Trump (+25%) have strong leads while Bush trails Clinton (-7%). In Oakland, Rubio leads (+25%) by a wide margin, Trump (+6%) by a much narrower margin, while Bush (-6%) trails. In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by large margins; Rubio by 43%, Bush by 39%, and Trump by 30%. The big difference in Trump’s percentages is the much higher percentage of undecided voters, 26% for him as opposed to14% for Bush vs. Clinton and 7% for Rubio vs. Clinton. All three Republicans are strong in Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan where Trump leads by 23%, Bush by 20%, and Rubio by 18%. In West Michigan, Rubio is up 18%, Bush 13%, and Trump and Clinton are tied. In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+6%) and Bush (+4%) are ahead by small margins while Trump (-20%) is behind by a large margin.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan. One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate,” Mitchell concluded. [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

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Pollster Report Card for 2014 Michigan Elections

 

As a recognized Michigan pollster and the official pollster of Fox 2 Detroit TV for 2014, I have issued this pollster report card highlighting the 2014 Michigan elections.

Background

On Election Day November 4, 2014,  we issued a press release on a poll conducted Monday night, November 3, 2014 saying that Governor Rick Snyder and Mark Schauer were in a statistical tie in the race for governor.  The subtitle part of the release said … Snyder 48% – Schauer 47%.  We showed the actual number as Snyder 48.1% and Schauer 47.4%.  We had all three third party candidates getting about 1% of the vote.  The Monday poll showed Snyder’s margin increasing from +0.2% the night before.

We went on to say in the release the following: “At the end of the survey, voters were asked to name which candidate they would vote for if they had to make a choice without the option of being undecided.  In that question, Snyder led by 2 percent (49%-47%).”  Realclearpolitics.org used that percentage as our final projection … Snyder +2%.

In the press release we also reiterated our final percentages for U.S. Senate, attorney general and secretary of state from a survey conducted Sunday night.

Report Card

Here is our report card based on 99% of the vote:

 

Race                                Projected Margin           Actual Final Margin               Difference

Governor                         Snyder +2%                  Snyder +3.9%                        +1.9%

U.S. Senate                    Peters +12%                 Peters +13.4%                        +1.4%

Attorney General            Schuette +8%                Schuette +8%                            None

Secretary of State            Johnson +7%               Johnson +10%                           +3%

 

Based on a poll we conducted three weeks ago, we also projected Michigan Supreme Court Justices Brian Zahra and David Viviano along with Richard Bernstein would win their elections to the Supreme Court.  All three won.

We are very proud to have provided this type of accuracy to Fox 2 Detroit!Fox 2 logo

Wave Election

 The 2014 election was the fourth “wave election” in the last five election cycles.  Only 2012 was not.

Wave elections break at the end and they break to one party.  This election broke heavily for Republicans and led to the GOP gaining 7 U.S. Senate seats as of 5 AM Wednesday morning and the likelihood that they will end up winning 9 seats after the Louisiana run-off and final results in Alaska are tallied.

The GOP also gained another 12 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, taking their total to 242, one of the largest margins since World War II.

This election was a complete repudiation of President Obama and his polices and it spread beyond federal offices to state houses across the country.  It is the reason many gubernatorial races, such as that in Michigan, broke heavily on Tuesday in favor of Republican candidates like Governor Rick Snyder.

Our polling showed a close race on Monday night, with Snyder leading +2%.  He won with a margin of 3.9%.  This type of gain was seen across the country.  Here are some examples of gains by GOP gubernatorial candidates comparing the final Realcleapolitics.com poll averages to the actual final results:

Race                    RCP Final Average            Actual Final Margin            Difference

Michigan             Snyder +2.0%                 Snyder +3.9%                     +1.9%

Wisconsin           Walker +2.2%                 Walker +5.7%                     +3.5%

Georgia               Deal +4.6%                      Deal +7.9%                        +3.3%

Illinois                 Rauner -0.8%                  Rauner +4.8%                     +5.6%

Maine                  LePage +1.4%                LePage +3.8%                      +2.4%

Maryland             Hogan -9%                      Hogan +10%                       +19.0%

Florida                 Scott -0.4%                     Scott +1.2%                         +1.6%

Conclusion

Some who read my press release yesterday might be thinking our polling was wrong.  The final results show that is not the case.  The final Snyder margin increased from our final projection of +2% and his win was not as narrow as we thought it might be.  Michigan was like other states across the United States where the Republican wave helped GOP gubernatorial candidates win by larger margins than the polling showed they would.  The wave also helped the Michigan GOP increase its margin in the state house to a record tying 63 seats and 27 state Senate seats.

Obviously, the only way candidates can take advantage of waves like this is to run strong campaigns that put themselves in a position to win.  Then the wave pushes the winning margins out further than anticipated as we saw in Governor Snyder’s win.

Let me reiterate how proud I am of my team, led by James Lower, that helped me provide such accurate poll data to Fox 2 Detroit and all those that heard of our results!

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Mich poll: Snyder expands lead; Land closes gap

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  Sept 15, 2014                                                                                                                Contact: Steve Mitchell     248-891-2414

 

Snyder Leads Schauer by 5%   Peters Leads Land by 2%

Snyder 46% – Schauer 41%

Peters 43% – Land 41%

 

EAST LANSING, Mich. — Governor Rick Snyder expanded his lead over his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Congressman Mark Schauer, while Congressman Gary Peters’ maintains a slim lead over Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the U.S. Senate race according to the latest Mitchell Poll of Michigan.

According to the new Mitchell Poll, Snyder leads Schauer by 5% (46%-41%) while Peters leads Land by 2%. In the Governor’s Race, Snyder has 46%, Schauer 41%, Libertarian Mary Buzuma 4%, U.S. Tax Payers Mark McFarlin 2%, Green Party Paul Homeniuk 1%, and Undecided 6%. In the U.S. Senate Race Peters has 43%, Land 41%, Libertarian Jim Fulner 3%, U.S. Tax Payers Richard Matkin 2%, Green Party Chris Wahmhoff 3%, and Undecided 9%.  The automated survey of 829 likely voters in November’s General Election was conducted Sept.14, 2014 by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. and has a Margin of Error + or – 3.4% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Mitchell Research had intended to release a survey today that we conducted on Wednesday September 10th prior to President Obama’s speech to the nation regarding the conflict in the Mid-East. That poll showed Snyder leading by only 1 point, and Peters up by 8 points. However, because of changing poll data nationally, we decided to conduct a survey last night (September 14) to see if those events coupled with the increased television advertising by Snyder and Land might have changed the races in Michigan. They had. In fact, Snyder’s lead moved out to 5% while Peters’ lead narrowed to 2%,” Steve Mitchell CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

In the Senate race, Peters has a 35% favorable – 37% unfavorable rating while Land is at 38%-45%.

“Governor Snyder’s job approval of (55%) is still higher than his favorability (48% favorable- 41% unfavorable).  Schauer has a 36% favorable – 39% unfavorable,” Mitchell, said.

A look at key demographics in the governor’s race shows:

  • By party (43% identified themselves as Democrats and 38% as Republicans):
    • Snyder support among GOP voters has dropped to 87%-5%.
    • Schauer leads with Democrats 76%-10%.
    • Among the key independent voters, Snyder is up 47%-34%.
  • By gender:
    • Snyder leads with men 47%-43% and leads with women 46%-40%.
  • By race:
    • Snyder leads with Caucasians 52%-38% but trails with African-Americans 78%-15%
  • By area support:
    • Schauer leads in Detroit 63%-4%.
    • Snyder leads in Wayne County outside of Detroit 49%-36%.
    • Snyder leads 53%-38% in Oakland County
    • Snyder leads 54%-38% in Macomb County
    • Schauer leads 51%-41% in Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Thumb Area
    • Snyder leads 54%-37% in in Mid-Michigan including Monroe and Washtenaw
    • Snyder leads 49%-39% in West Michigan
    • Schauer leads 45%-32% in Northern Michigan/UP

“Snyder has increased his support with women voters, in the Detroit suburbs, while Schauer voters have moved to undecided. Although Snyder has increased his lead, the 3rd party candidates seem to be cutting into his margin,” Mitchell said.

There have also been changes in the U.S. Senate race.

A look at key demographics in the U.S. Senate race shows:

  • By party (43% identified themselves as Democrats and 38% as Republicans):
    • Peters has 80%-3% Democratic Party support
    • Land has 84%-5% Republican Party support.
    • Among the key independent voters, Land is up 40%-36%.
  • By gender:
    • Land/Peters tie with men 44%-44%, Peters leads with women 42%-37%.
  • By race:
    • Land leads with Caucasians 45%-40%.
    • Peter’s leads with African-Americans 74%-15%.
  • By area:
    • Peters leads in Detroit 63%-4%.
    • Land leads 43%-40% in Wayne County outside of Detroit.
    • Land leads 47%-42% in Oakland
    • Land leads 46%-42% in Macomb
    • Peters leads 52%-39% in Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Midland/Thumb Area
    • Land leads 45%-39% in Mid-Michigan including Monroe and Washtenaw
    • In her home area of West Michigan, Land leads Peters 44%-38%
    • Peters leads 45%-30% in Northern Michigan/UP

“Land’s advertising, plus a down turn in President Obama’s popularity seems to have dramatically changed this race since last week,” Mitchell concluded.

[The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the four candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A New Way of Polling

Want to know who is going to win the presidential elections before they happen? This campaign done by 7-Eleven actually provides you with a pretty accurate guess. The “7-Election” campaign was used to predict the 2012 election and was right!

This is such a fun and creative method. When you pick up your daily coffee or soda from 7-Eleven you are given the choice of an Obama or Romney cup. Now if you’re planning on voting for Romney there is no way you would walk around with an Obama cup all day. The results of this campaign in previous elections have closely mirrored those of the last two elections, and accurately predicted the winner in all three!

The UPC codes were scanned and tallied at the end of each day and updated on the website. At the end of the 2012 election, more than 6 million candidate cups were tallied. Check out the stats below from the previous elections.

While at MR&C we prefer traditional polling methods, we know that sometimes you need to go outside the box to drive results. The creator of the campaign, Ketchum PR, has won many awards for this brilliant idea!

2000 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
George W. Bush* 21%** 47.9%
Al Gore 20%** 48.4%
2004 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
George W. Bush* 51% 50.7%
John Kerry 49% 48.3%
2008 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
John McCain 46% 45.7%
Barack Obama* 52% 52.9%

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Twitter Used For Polling?

As you may know, a lot of what Mitchell Communications and Research does is polling. We poll for our clients and their needs to make the best campaign and conduct the best research as possible. Polling can be conducted in many ways, but as social media becomes bigger, there is now a way to poll through Twitter…How amazing is that?

“Poll Everywhere” is a system used to create polls throughout the Twitter world and more.  The Poll Everywhere widget can be downloaded as a PowerPoint Slide and will live-update as each user votes. If you want to find out more about your audience, just ask them to take out their cell phones and text to 99503 their desired response.

The newest method for “Poll Everywhere” is even simpler. Just tweet to “@poll” the code that corresponds to your choice. So, if you want to choose Romney in a poll, tweet “@poll Romney”. It is as simple as that and brings results.

Accounts start free, but free accounts can only have 30 responses – and as pollsters we can tell you that 30 responses is not really a valid sample. Plans start from $15 a month to $1,400 a month. That plan, Platinum, allows 50 people in a business to gather up to 20,000 responses per poll and customize the responses and data (which may be worth the price tag for large companies). Regardless of price, the usefulness of Poll Everywhere is apparent, especially for anyone who gives presentations, performs market research, or has a lot of Twitter followers!

At MR&C, the polling system we use brings a lot more detailed results for analyzing. However, “Poll Everywhere” is great for companies trying to get simple feedback on their products, services and the uses really are endless. This system is great for general polling but if you want to receive more in depth information you must work with a research firm like MR&C!

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Release: Land Leads Peters – Dykstra- Peters Dead Heat Senate Seat Toss-up

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P R E S S   R E L E A S E

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Steve Mitchell, Cell: 248-891-2414

September 3, 2013

Land Leads Peters – Dykstra- Peters Dead Heat Senate Seat Toss-up

Land 39%-Peters 36% and Peters 39%-Dykstra 37%

EAST LANSING, Mich. — Although Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate seat in 20 years, the 2014 race is shaping up as one that could change the GOP’s luck.  U.S. Congressman Gary Peters trails former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (39%-36%) and is in a statistical dead heat with Holland Mayor Kurt Dykstra (37%-38%) according to the latest Mitchell Poll released today.  The automated telephone survey of 1881 likely 2014 General Election voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. on August 26, 2013 and has a margin of error of + or – 2.23%.

“Republicans have a real shot at taking Democratic Senator Carl Levin’s seat next year.  Terri Lynn Land has a three percent lead over Gary Peters while Kurt Dykstra, who is essentially unknown statewide, is in a statistical tie.  The fact that someone with relatively low name identification can be tied with a sitting congressman shows that both the Republicans and Democrats are getting the base vote.  Either Land or Dykstra could win this race with enough money behind them,” Steve Mitchell, Chairman of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

One of the surprises in the survey was support based on gender.  Among women, Peters has a five point lead over Land (38%-33%) and an eight point lead over Dykstra (40%-32%). However, the big difference for Land is her lead with men. Land leads with males by 14% (47%-33%) while Dykstra’s lead is just 5% (42%-37%).

“Men always identify more as Republicans than women, but I would have thought that Land would do better with her own gender than with the opposite sex,” Mitchell continued.

Other highlights of the poll include:

  • By party affiliation:
    • Among Democrats, Peters leads Land by 68%-10% and Dykstra by 76%-6%.
    • With Republicans, Land leads Peters by 77%-5%, Dykstra leads Peters by 78%-5%.
    • By union household:
      • Peters leads Land in Labor Households by 44%-33% and Dykstra by 48%-29%.
      • In Non-Labor Households, Land leads Peters 43%-31% and Peters leads Dykstra 48%-29%.
      • By race:
        • Among whites Land leads Peters 44%-32% and Dykstra leads Peters 41%-35%.
        • With African Americans, Peters leads Land by 61%-8% and Dykstra by 75%-7%.
        • Among other races Peters leads Land 33%-21% and Dykstra by 30%-24%.
        • By gender:
          • Land leads Peters overwhelmingly with males 47%-33% and Dykstra leads Peters with males by 42%-37%.
          • With females, Peters leads Land 38%-33% and Peters leads Dykstra by 40%-32%.

When comparing just Land to Dykstra our poll found:

  • By party affiliation:
    • With Republicans, Land leads Dykstra 40%-25%
    • By union household:
      • Land leads Dykstra in both Union and Non-Households.
      • By age:
        • Land leads Dykstra in all age groups except 40-49 year-olds where they are tied at (30%-30%).
        • By race:
          • Among whites, Land leads Dykstra 40%-26%.
          • With African Americans, Land leads Dykstra 29%-14%.
          • Among other races, Land leads Dykstra 43%-0%.

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Release: Obama Leads Romney in Michigan

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P R E S S  R E L E A S E

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: NOVEMBER 5, 2012

Contact: Steve Mitchell, Cell: 248-891-2414

Obama Leads Romney in Michigan

Obama 51%-Romney 46%

EAST LANSING, Mich. —On the eve of the election, President Barack Obama has a 5% lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to the latest Mitchell Poll conducted for the Michigan View. Obama leads 51%-46% with 2% voting for someone else and just 1% undecided. The automated telephone survey of 1305 likely voters in the November General Election was conducted November 4, 2012 and has a Margin of Error + or – 2.71% at the 95% level of confidence.

“With a 5% lead going into the election, President Obama is poised to win Mitt Romney’s home state of Michigan. Romney’s lead is fueled by strong support from the approximately 1/3 of the voters who have cast an absentee ballot. Among those voters, Obama leads by 16% (57%-41%) while Romney leads by 1% (49%-48%) among those who are definitely voting tomorrow,” Steve Mitchell, President of Mitchell Research and Communications Inc. said

Some of the key findings are as follows:

  • The gender gap is back. Obama leads with women by 13% (55%-42%) while Romney leads with men by just 3% (50%-47%).
  • Obama leads by a large margin with younger voters. Among 18-29 year olds the lead is 67%-23% and among 30-39 year olds it is 54%-45%. Obama leads 51%-47% with 50-59 year olds. Obama and Romney are tied with 60-69 year old voters (49%-49%). Romney leads with just two age groups, 40-49 year olds (53%-44%) and 70 and over voters (50%-48%).
  • Both Candidates have solidified their leads with their own party. Obama leads among Democrats 93%-6% while Romney leads with Republicans 93%-7%. Among Independents, Romney leads by 4% (48%-44%)
  • By race, Obama leads by 92%-7% with African-Americans while Romney leads with white voters by 7% (52%-45%). Among all other races, they are tied at 43%
  • Obama currently leads in labor households by 22% (60%-38%) while Romney leads in non-labor households by 4% (50%-46%). About 1/3 of the voters live in labor households and 2/3 in non-labor households.
  • Obama leads by an 88%-6% margin in the City of Detroit. In the Tri-County area outside of Detroit, Obama leads by just 1% (49%-48%) while the areas outside the Tri-County area Romney leads by 1% (49%-48%).

“In order to win Michigan, Romney had to do better in both the Tri-County area surrounding Detroit and out state Michigan. He also had to do better with men voters than he is currently doing. Romney is actually slightly more popular than Obama. Fifty-three percent have a favorable impression of Romney while 47% have an unfavorable impression of him. Fifty-two percent have a favorable impression of Obama while 48% have an unfavorable impression of him. Among undecided voters, 67% have a favorable impression of President Obama while just 39% have a favorable impression of Mitt Romney,” Mitchell said.

Voters were given a choice between four issues and asked which one was the most important on in the choice they made for president. The top issue was jobs and the economy (66%) followed by national security (14%), women’s issues (12%), and the auto bailout (8%). Although Romney leads by 14% with those who say the economy (56%-42%), Obama leads among those who say national security (52%-44%), those who say women’s issues (82%-12%) and those who say the auto bailout (77%-15%).

“There has been a great deal of discussion about what percent of the voters that turn out tomorrow will be Democrats and Republicans. According to our survey, the Democratic advantage in party affiliation is +7% (46%-39%). This is about half way between the 2004 voter turnout and the 2008 voter turnout. Despite the fact that he is leading, Obama won with this group of voters by 13% (55%-42%) in 2008. The Romney campaign is going to have to do a much better job than the Obama campaign in its Get Out the Vote efforts tomorrow if they are going to overcome a 5% margin. It looks as though Obama will win Michigan,” Mitchell said.

The survey also showed that U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow has a 14% lead over former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra (55%-41%).

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