Archive for Polling

Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in MI; Bush tied with Clinton

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AUGUST 20, 2015 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414

Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in Michigan Trump and Bush tied with Clinton

EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has opened up a 9 percent lead over presumptive Democratic nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (45%-36%) while both Jeb Bush (41%-40%) and Donald Trump (40%-39%) have a narrow 1 per cent lead, well within the margin of error of the latest Mitchell-FOX 2 Michigan Poll. The poll of N=1,310 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night August 10, 2015, the night before Donald Trump spoke at a packed Republican Party rally in Birch Run, by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.7% at the 95% level of confidence.

“There are several important pieces of information in this poll: First, Hillary Clinton’s negative publicity has hurt her with Democrats, independents, women and younger voters. Second, the new face of Marco Rubio is much stronger at this point than either the new face of Donald Trump or the old name of Jeb Bush. Third, Trump is for real as a presidential candidate, he is polling as well as Jeb Bush, the brother and son of a Republican president and clearly the establishment candidate in Michigan,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications said. As is usually the case, the Republicans lead with white voters while Clinton leads with non-white voters, especially African-Americans who comprised 14% of the sample.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting; By party: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both get 12% of the Democratic vote while Trump gets 15%. Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 87% of the vote to Bush’s 81% and Trump’s 71%. However, the percentage of undecided Republicans is much higher with Trump (25%) than with Rubio (9%) and Bush (16%). Rubio leads with the key independent voters by 20% (48%-27%) while Bush leads by 11% (35%-24%) and Trump is tied (40%-40%).

“Clinton has a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 12%-15% of the vote to Republicans. Meanwhile, she is getting only 4% of the Republican vote against Rubio and Bush and 5% against Trump. She is also doing poorly among independents where she trails 11%-20% with Bush and Rubio and where she is tied with Trump,” Mitchell said.

By gender: Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She only leads by 4% against Bush and 5% against Rubio. Against Trump, she leads by 13%. With men, Rubio leads by 24%, Trump by 15%, and Bush by only 3%.

“With the most traditional candidate, Bush, there is very little difference by gender. However, there are much greater differences among Rubio and Trump voters. The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women. The percentage of undecided men, the voters most likely to vote for a Republican, is higher with men than women in all three trial ballot tests; with Bush, there are 6% more undecided men than women, with Rubio there are 8% more, and with Trump 9% more undecided men than women. Undecided men are far more likely to end up voting Republican than undecided women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age: · While Rubio leads by 21% with 18-39 year olds, Bush is only up 1% and Trump trails by 20%. · However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 12%, Rubio by 9%, while Bush trails by 16%. · All three Republicans are strong with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump are up by 27% and Bush by 21%. · All three trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 21%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 8%. · All three GOP candidates are behind with 60-69 year olds. Again, Trump is behind by a bigger margin, 15%, while Bush trails by 6% and Rubio by just 2%.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters. Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds. However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 40% worse than Rubio. Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic voters,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area: · Clinton leads by 90% in Detroit over all three Republicans. · In Wayne County outside Detroit, Rubio (+27%) and Trump (+25%) have strong leads while Bush trails Clinton (-7%). In Oakland, Rubio leads (+25%) by a wide margin, Trump (+6%) by a much narrower margin, while Bush (-6%) trails. In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by large margins; Rubio by 43%, Bush by 39%, and Trump by 30%. The big difference in Trump’s percentages is the much higher percentage of undecided voters, 26% for him as opposed to14% for Bush vs. Clinton and 7% for Rubio vs. Clinton. All three Republicans are strong in Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan where Trump leads by 23%, Bush by 20%, and Rubio by 18%. In West Michigan, Rubio is up 18%, Bush 13%, and Trump and Clinton are tied. In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+6%) and Bush (+4%) are ahead by small margins while Trump (-20%) is behind by a large margin.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan. One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate,” Mitchell concluded. [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

Posted in: Latest Poll Data, Political news, Polling, Release

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Peters Expands Lead over Land in MI U.S. Senate Race

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Snyder, Schuette, and Johnson Lead by 4%
Peters Leads Land by 13%

October 2, 2014

EAST LANSING, Mich. — Congressman Gary Peters greatly expanded his lead over former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the Michigan U.S. Senate race, while Governor Rick Snyder maintains his lead over Democratic challenger, former U.S. Congressman Mark Schauer according to a Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Michigan. Attorney General Bill Schuette and Secretary of State Ruth Johnson both lead their Democratic opponents by 4%.

According to the Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll,Gov.Snyder leads Schauer by 4% (46%-42%). In a September 14th Mitchell Poll, the governor led 46%-41% while Peters led 43%-41%. In the September 29th poll, Snyder has 46%, Schauer 42%.
Libertarian Mary Buzuma 2%, U.S. Tax Payers Mark McFarlin 2%, Green Party Paul Homeniuk <1%, and Undecided 8%.

In the U.S. Senate Race, Peters has 49%, Land has 36%. Libertarian Jim Fulner 3%, U.S. Tax Payers Richard Matkin 1%, Green Party Chris Wahmhoff 1%, and Undecided 9%.

The automated survey of 1,178 likely voters in November’s General Election was conducted Sept. 29, 2014 by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. for Fox 2 News (WJBK-TV) in Detroit and has a margin of error + or – 2.86% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Governor Snyder’s lead has stabilized at around 4%-5%, where it has been for most of September, after dipping down to a one per cent lead in mid-July. However, we are picking up a tremendous amount of volatility in the United States Senate Race,” Steve Mitchell CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

“Two weeks ago we had Peters up by only 2%, today we are showing him up by 13%,” Mitchell added.

In the campaigns for Secretary of State and Attorney General, incumbent Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette leads Democratic challenger Mark Totten by a 4% margin (43%-39%) while incumbent GOP Secretary of State Ruth Johnson also leads Democrat Godfrey Dillard by 4% (41-%-37%).
Page 2 of 3 Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll Press Release 10/1/14

“Governor Snyder’s job approval of (51%) is still higher than his favorability (45% favorable- 42% unfavorable). Schauer has near even favorability at 35% favorable – 33% unfavorable,” Mitchell, said.

A look at key demographics in the Governor’s race shows:

• By Party Affiliation (42% identified themselves as Democrats and 37% as Republicans):

o Snyder support among GOP voters is 85%-8%.
o Schauer leads with Democrats 80%-11%.
o Among the key independent voters, Snyder is up 46%-33%.

• By Gender:

o Snyder leads with men 48%-44% and leads with women 45%-40%.

• By Race:

o Snyder leads with Caucasians 53%-37% but trails with African-Americans 80%-12%

• By Area Support :

o Schauer leads in Detroit 79%-8%.
o Snyder leads in Wayne County outside of Detroit 55%-27%.
o Snyder leads 49%-38% in Oakland County
o Snyder leads 61%-35% in Macomb County
o Schauer leads 52%-38% in Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Thumb Area
o Snyder leads 48%-44% in in Mid-Michigan including Monroe and Washtenaw
o Snyder leads 53%-38% in West Michigan
o Schauer leads 46%-32% in Northern Michigan/UP

“Snyder has maintained a consistent lead across the major demographics,” Mitchell said.

There has been a major move in the U.S. Senate race.

A look at key demographics in the U.S. Senate race shows:

• By Party Affiliation  (42% identified themselves as Democrats and 37% as Republicans):

o Peters has 87%-4% Democratic Party support
o Land has 77%-13% Republican Party support.
o Among the key independent voters, Peters leads 49%-23%.

• By Gender:

o Peters leads with men 49%-40%, Peters leads with women 50%-33%.

• By Race:

o Peters leads with Caucasians 46%-42%.
o Peter’s leads with African-Americans 81%-10%.

• By Area Support:

o Peters leads in Detroit 77%-8%.
o Peters leads 50%-39% in Wayne County outside of Detroit.
o Peters leads 54%-30% in Oakland
o Land leads 49%-39% in Macomb
o Peters leads 58%-35% in Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Midland/Thumb Area
o Peters leads 50%-36% in Mid-Michigan including Monroe and Washtenaw
o In her home area of West Michigan, Land leads Peters 46%-37%
o Peters leads 51%-28% in Northern Michigan/UP

“Peters has broadened his lead with both men and women. Peters seems to be doing well across the board,” Mitchell concluded.

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Scottish Independence Referendum Likely to Fail

The United Kingdom Will Stay United

By Steve Mitchell

Polls in the UK are showing that the election of Scottish independence referendum is a dead heat. The BBC tracking poll of polls shows that 50% are voting AGAINST the referendum while 45% are voting FOR it . However, the pollsters in the UK are excluding undecided voters. That’s a big mistake.

Undecided voters almost always vote no, especially on an issue as important as this. It’s hard to imagine someone who hasn’t made up their mind going into the polling booth and thinking … “hmmm … should I vote to end more than 300 years of Scotland being a part of England? Sure, why not!”

This is a very difficult decision and it will not be made lightly by Scottish voters. From my understanding of the UK polling, about 4%-8% of the voters are undecided. To win independence, almost all of the undecided voters would have to vote in FAVOR of the referendum, something I just don’t see happening. I would be surprised if even a third of the undecided voters end up supporting it.

In 1995, French Quebec wanted to withdraw from Canada and form a new country. The election was very close with the opponents winning with just 50.58% of the vote. However, polling in that race showed that 47% were FOR separation, 41% AGAINST, and 12% undecided on the eve of the election . Almost 10% of the 12% undecided voted “No” with just 2% of the undecided voting “Yes.” More than 80% of the undecided voters cast a ballot against separation from Canada.

In Scotland, unlike Canada, the NO vote is ahead. Therefore, if the poll data I am seeing is accurate, the Scottish Independence Referendum will fail. IF the polls are accurate, the margin could reach NO 55% and YES 45%, a landslide. In any case, IF the polls are accurate, the United Kingdom should stay united, with Scotland a part of it.

http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/poll-tracker

[1] http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.31.4063&rep=rep1&type=pdf

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Mitchell polling accuracy validated by RCP

Steve Mitchell, called Michigan’s most respected pollster by Detroit News Editorial Page Editor Nolan Finley, also has had his polling accuracy validated by results posted on the RealClearPolitics.com website.

RealClearPolitics.com, known as the premier polling aggregating site, has cited Mitchell Research’s accuracy in the past three election cycles.

For detailed results, click the links below.

2012

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

2010

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/mi/michigan_governor_snyder_vs_bernero-1407.html#polls

2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_mccain_vs_obama-553.html

 

Posted in: Polling, Uncategorized

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A New Way of Polling

Want to know who is going to win the presidential elections before they happen? This campaign done by 7-Eleven actually provides you with a pretty accurate guess. The “7-Election” campaign was used to predict the 2012 election and was right!

This is such a fun and creative method. When you pick up your daily coffee or soda from 7-Eleven you are given the choice of an Obama or Romney cup. Now if you’re planning on voting for Romney there is no way you would walk around with an Obama cup all day. The results of this campaign in previous elections have closely mirrored those of the last two elections, and accurately predicted the winner in all three!

The UPC codes were scanned and tallied at the end of each day and updated on the website. At the end of the 2012 election, more than 6 million candidate cups were tallied. Check out the stats below from the previous elections.

While at MR&C we prefer traditional polling methods, we know that sometimes you need to go outside the box to drive results. The creator of the campaign, Ketchum PR, has won many awards for this brilliant idea!

2000 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
George W. Bush* 21%** 47.9%
Al Gore 20%** 48.4%
2004 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
George W. Bush* 51% 50.7%
John Kerry 49% 48.3%
2008 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
John McCain 46% 45.7%
Barack Obama* 52% 52.9%

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Twitter Used For Polling?

As you may know, a lot of what Mitchell Communications and Research does is polling. We poll for our clients and their needs to make the best campaign and conduct the best research as possible. Polling can be conducted in many ways, but as social media becomes bigger, there is now a way to poll through Twitter…How amazing is that?

“Poll Everywhere” is a system used to create polls throughout the Twitter world and more.  The Poll Everywhere widget can be downloaded as a PowerPoint Slide and will live-update as each user votes. If you want to find out more about your audience, just ask them to take out their cell phones and text to 99503 their desired response.

The newest method for “Poll Everywhere” is even simpler. Just tweet to “@poll” the code that corresponds to your choice. So, if you want to choose Romney in a poll, tweet “@poll Romney”. It is as simple as that and brings results.

Accounts start free, but free accounts can only have 30 responses – and as pollsters we can tell you that 30 responses is not really a valid sample. Plans start from $15 a month to $1,400 a month. That plan, Platinum, allows 50 people in a business to gather up to 20,000 responses per poll and customize the responses and data (which may be worth the price tag for large companies). Regardless of price, the usefulness of Poll Everywhere is apparent, especially for anyone who gives presentations, performs market research, or has a lot of Twitter followers!

At MR&C, the polling system we use brings a lot more detailed results for analyzing. However, “Poll Everywhere” is great for companies trying to get simple feedback on their products, services and the uses really are endless. This system is great for general polling but if you want to receive more in depth information you must work with a research firm like MR&C!

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