Archive for Release

Rubio Leads Clinton by 3% in Michigan

 

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

Contact: Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414

September 27, 2015

Rubio Leads Clinton by 3% in Michigan

(Trump and Clinton tied; Clinton Leads Bush by 5%)

 

EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s lead has dropped from 9 percent over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in early August to 3% now (43%-40%) while Clinton and billionaire businessman Donald Trump are tied 42% while Clinton now leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by 5 percent (42%-37%) according a newly released Mitchell – FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan. The poll of N=1483 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN Republican Party Presidential Debate by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.5% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Although she has narrowed the lead against Rubio, Clinton is still trailing in Michigan, a state that has not voted for a Republican since 1988 when it favored then Vice President George H.W. Bush over Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.  Rubio is still stronger than Trump, who is tied with Clinton, while Bush has fallen behind by 5 percent after leading Clinton by a point in our August survey,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting;

By party:

  • Rubio (11%) and Trump (10%) are doing better with Democrats than Jeb Bush (6%).
  • Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 82% of the vote to Trump’s and Bush’s 74%. Rubio has fallen 5 percent with GOP voters; Trump has gone up 3 percent, while Bush has fallen 7 percent since August.
  • With key independents, Clinton is basically tied with Bush (30%-29%), however she trails Trump by a wide margin (46%-30%) and she trails Rubio by even a wider margin (39%-28%).

“Clinton continues to have a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 10%-11% of the vote to the stronger Republicans.  This is slightly better than in August, but she still continues to get only 4%-5% of the Republican vote against all three GOP candidates,” Mitchell said.

By gender:

  • Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She leads by 7% against Bush (43%-36%) and 12%% against Trump (47%-35%).  However, her lead against Rubio is only 2% (43%-41%).  .
  • With men, Rubio leads by 9% (46%-38%), Trump leads by 11% (48%-37%), and Bush actually is behind by 4% (37%-41%).

“Clinton is very weak with women.  Although she leads by the 10% margin most Democratic men lead by with women, her margin with the strongest GOP candidate is only 2%.  As a woman, she should be much stronger with female voters.  Meanwhile, she is very polarizing with men.  She trails by double digits among men with two GOP candidates, about twice the margin most Democrats traditionally lose by with men.  The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age:

  • Rubio trails by 1% with 18-39 year olds, but Clinton leads Trump by 18% and Bush by 22% with this group of the youngest voters.
  • However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 14% and Rubio and Bush by 4%.
  • All three Republicans lead with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump (10% each) are up by double digits while Bush’s lead is much smaller at 2%.
  • All three GOP candidates trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 7%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 11%.
  • With 70 + voters, Rubio leads Clinton by 7% while Clinton leads by a narrow 2% margin with Trump and Bush.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters.  Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds.  However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 20% worse than Rubio.  Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area:

  • Clinton leads by 80% in Detroit over all three Republicans.
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Clinton and Rubio are tied at 42%, but Clinton leads Trump by 5% and Bush by 15%.
  • In Oakland, Rubio leads (+15%) by a wide margin, Trump (+9%) by a narrower margin, while Bush is up by a very close margin (+4%).
  • In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by a good margins; Trump by 27%, Rubio by 10% and Bush by 9%.
  • In Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Midland/the Thumb Area, Rubio leads by 13%, Trump by 9%, and Bush trails by 1%.
  • All three Republicans are trail by big margins in Washtenaw, Monroe, Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan, where Clinton leads Trump leads by 33%, Rubio by 23% and Bush by 20%.
  • In West Michigan, Rubio is up 9% and Trump by 6% while Bush and Clinton are tied.
  • In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+23%) and Trump (+15%) are winning by strong margins while Bush and Clinton are tied.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan.  One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate.

“Of those surveyed, 35% have a favorable impression of Hillary Clinton while 54% have an unfavorable impression.  However, she is not alone in unpopularity.  Only 30% have a favorable impression of Jeb Bush while 52% have an unfavorable one.  Trump is worse than both, a 30%-57% favorable/unfavorable.  Only Rubio, with a 33%-34% favorable/unfavorable is not extremely unpopular.  Essentially, in match-ups between Clinton vs. Bush and Trump, partisan Republicans and Democrats are holding their noses while voting for the candidate from their party,” Mitchell concluded.

 [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

Posted in: Political news, Release

Leave a Comment (0) →

Clinton Leads Sanders by 15%

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

Contact Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414        

September 27, 2015       

Clinton Leads Sanders by 15% – Lead Narrows to 7% With Biden in Three-way

(Clinton 35% – Biden 28% – Sanders 22%)

EAST LANSING, Michigan — Although former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (50%) has a majority of the vote in a two-way trial ballot test against Senator Bernie Sanders (35%), she has serious problems in Michigan if Vice President Joe Biden decides to enter the race according to a Mitchell-FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan.   The automated survey of 538 likely March 2016 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN Republican debate featuring the top 11 GOP candidates. The poll has a Margin of Error of + or – 4.2%.

“Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Bernie Sanders, but if Joe Biden gets into the race, and I think he will, it changes everything.  Even though Biden has yet to announce, he only trails Clinton by 7%, a very small margin.  The slow drip, drip, drip of negative publicity caused by the use of her own email system while secretary of state has clearly caused a steady erosion in her popularity.  Looking at our Michigan polling as well as national polling, I now believe that Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee and that if Vice President Biden enters the race, he will win, ”Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

First, a look at the two-way contest between Clinton and Sanders:

By age:

  • Sanders leads with voters under 50 by 48%-33%
  • Clinton leads 65%-23% with voters over 50.

Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 2 of 3

By gender:

  • Sanders leads with men 52%-40%.
  • Clinton leads with women 48%-30%.

By race:

  • The race is tied with white voters at 43%.
  • Clinton has a huge 71%-5% lead with African-Americans.

By area:

  • In Detroit, Clinton leads 69%-0%.
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Clinton leads 49%-42%.
  • In Oakland, Clinton leads 59%-28%.
  • In Macomb, Clinton leads 46%-32%.
  • In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Clinton leads 43%-21%.
  • In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Sanders leads 51%-41%.
  • In West Michigan, Clinton leads 50%-35%.
  • In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Clinton leads 55%-42%.

In a three-way contest between Clinton, Sanders and Biden:

By age:

  • Clinton and Sanders are tied at 31% with Biden at 21% among18-39 year olds.
  • Sanders (26%) has a slight lead over Biden (23%) and Clinton (22%) with 40-49 year olds.
  • Clinton leads Biden and Sanders (47%-29%-18%) with voters 50-59.
  • Clinton leads Biden and Sanders by a narrower margin with voter 60-69 (35%-28%-18%).
  • Biden leads Clinton and Sanders with 70+ voters (43%-42%-7%).

By gender:

  • Sanders and Clinton are tied at 31% with Biden at 21% among men.
  • Clinton (33%) leads Biden (23%) and Sanders (19%) among women.

By race:

  • Clinton (31%) leads Sanders (27%) and Biden (25%) with whites.
  • Clinton (40%) leads Biden (36%) and Sanders (5%) with African-Americans.

By area:

  • In Detroit, Biden (54%) has a big lead over Clinton (29%) and Sanders (0%).
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Sanders (37%) leads Clinton (34%) and Biden (22%).
  • In Oakland, Clinton (52%) has a big lead over Biden (16%) and Sanders (10%).
  • In Macomb, Clinton (59%) has a big lead over Biden (14%) and Sanders (9%).
  • In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, it is a statistical tie between Clinton (24%), Biden (22%) and Sanders (21%).
  • In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Sanders (33%) has a small lead over Clinton (31%) with Biden (22%) trailing in third.

Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 3 of 3

  • In West Michigan, Biden (42%) has a 12 point lead over Clinton (30%) with Sanders (16%) trailing.
  • In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Biden (34%) leads Clinton (29%) and Sanders (29%).

“Each of the candidates has pockets of strength, but it has to be stressed that Biden makes the race very close despite the fact he has not announced,” Mitchell concluded.

(The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll)

-30-

               

Posted in: Political news, Release

Leave a Comment (0) →

Trump Leads with GOP Primary Voters in MI

 

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

September 19, 2015                       Contact: Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414

Trump Leads with GOP Primary Voters in Michigan

(Trump 26% – Carson 21% – Fiorina 12% – Rubio 11%)

EAST LANSING, Michigan — Donald Trump is leading his Republican challengers among those who would vote in the Michigan GOP Presidential Primary next year according to a Mitchell-FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan conducted last night. Trump with 26% leads Carson at 21% with Carly Fiorina in third with 12% and Marco Rubio in fourth with 11%.  Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are tied for fifth at 6%.  Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, and John Kasich are all in the low single digits. 11% of likely Republican Primary Voters were undecided.

The automated survey of 700 likely March 2016 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN debate featuring the top 9 candidates. The Poll has a Margin of Error of + or – 3.7%.

 

“Trump has a solid lead in Michigan with likely voters in next year’s Republican Primary, but he does not have the overwhelming lead here that he has in other states.  With so many candidates splitting up the vote now, the question remains as to whether or not Trump will gain support as the field eventually gets smaller, or whether those voters who support more traditional candidates will support anybody but Trump,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

Fiorina was overwhelmingly regarded as the winner of the CNN debate last Wednesday with 36% calling her the winner of the 9 way debate.  Trump at 17% was second followed by Ben Carson at 13%, Marco Rubio scored 8%, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz both came in at 3%, John Kasich got 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, and finally 0% of those surveyed said Scott Walker was the winner. 18% of the GOP Primary voters were undecided.  “Fiorina had a strong debate performance. However, that has not yet translated into a major uptick in her support amongst likely Michigan Republican Primary Voters. That could be due to the fact she is still a largely unknown candidate at this stage in the race,” concluded Mitchell.

Republican Primary Ballot Question:

Aug 10             Sept 18

Trump             20%                 26%

Carson              12%                 21%

Fiorina             15%                 12%

Rubio               10%                 11%

Bush                12%                   6%

Cruz                  8%                   6%

Kasich               8%                   4%

Huckabee         4%                   2%

Walker               4%                   1%

 

Winner of GOP Primary Debate:

Aug 10             Sept 18

Fiorina             N/A                  36%

Trump               21%                 17%

Carson              10%                 13%

Rubio               14%                   8%

Bush                  5%                   3%

Cruz                  8%                   3%

Kasich               8%                   2%

Huckabee         4%                   1%

Walker               3%                   0%

Posted in: Political news, Release

Leave a Comment (0) →

Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in MI; Bush tied with Clinton

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

AUGUST 20, 2015 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414

Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in Michigan Trump and Bush tied with Clinton

EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has opened up a 9 percent lead over presumptive Democratic nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (45%-36%) while both Jeb Bush (41%-40%) and Donald Trump (40%-39%) have a narrow 1 per cent lead, well within the margin of error of the latest Mitchell-FOX 2 Michigan Poll. The poll of N=1,310 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night August 10, 2015, the night before Donald Trump spoke at a packed Republican Party rally in Birch Run, by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.7% at the 95% level of confidence.

“There are several important pieces of information in this poll: First, Hillary Clinton’s negative publicity has hurt her with Democrats, independents, women and younger voters. Second, the new face of Marco Rubio is much stronger at this point than either the new face of Donald Trump or the old name of Jeb Bush. Third, Trump is for real as a presidential candidate, he is polling as well as Jeb Bush, the brother and son of a Republican president and clearly the establishment candidate in Michigan,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications said. As is usually the case, the Republicans lead with white voters while Clinton leads with non-white voters, especially African-Americans who comprised 14% of the sample.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting; By party: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both get 12% of the Democratic vote while Trump gets 15%. Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 87% of the vote to Bush’s 81% and Trump’s 71%. However, the percentage of undecided Republicans is much higher with Trump (25%) than with Rubio (9%) and Bush (16%). Rubio leads with the key independent voters by 20% (48%-27%) while Bush leads by 11% (35%-24%) and Trump is tied (40%-40%).

“Clinton has a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 12%-15% of the vote to Republicans. Meanwhile, she is getting only 4% of the Republican vote against Rubio and Bush and 5% against Trump. She is also doing poorly among independents where she trails 11%-20% with Bush and Rubio and where she is tied with Trump,” Mitchell said.

By gender: Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She only leads by 4% against Bush and 5% against Rubio. Against Trump, she leads by 13%. With men, Rubio leads by 24%, Trump by 15%, and Bush by only 3%.

“With the most traditional candidate, Bush, there is very little difference by gender. However, there are much greater differences among Rubio and Trump voters. The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women. The percentage of undecided men, the voters most likely to vote for a Republican, is higher with men than women in all three trial ballot tests; with Bush, there are 6% more undecided men than women, with Rubio there are 8% more, and with Trump 9% more undecided men than women. Undecided men are far more likely to end up voting Republican than undecided women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age: · While Rubio leads by 21% with 18-39 year olds, Bush is only up 1% and Trump trails by 20%. · However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 12%, Rubio by 9%, while Bush trails by 16%. · All three Republicans are strong with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump are up by 27% and Bush by 21%. · All three trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 21%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 8%. · All three GOP candidates are behind with 60-69 year olds. Again, Trump is behind by a bigger margin, 15%, while Bush trails by 6% and Rubio by just 2%.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters. Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds. However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 40% worse than Rubio. Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic voters,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area: · Clinton leads by 90% in Detroit over all three Republicans. · In Wayne County outside Detroit, Rubio (+27%) and Trump (+25%) have strong leads while Bush trails Clinton (-7%). In Oakland, Rubio leads (+25%) by a wide margin, Trump (+6%) by a much narrower margin, while Bush (-6%) trails. In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by large margins; Rubio by 43%, Bush by 39%, and Trump by 30%. The big difference in Trump’s percentages is the much higher percentage of undecided voters, 26% for him as opposed to14% for Bush vs. Clinton and 7% for Rubio vs. Clinton. All three Republicans are strong in Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan where Trump leads by 23%, Bush by 20%, and Rubio by 18%. In West Michigan, Rubio is up 18%, Bush 13%, and Trump and Clinton are tied. In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+6%) and Bush (+4%) are ahead by small margins while Trump (-20%) is behind by a large margin.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan. One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate,” Mitchell concluded. [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

Posted in: Latest Poll Data, Political news, Polling, Release

Leave a Comment (0) →

Release: Land Leads Peters – Dykstra- Peters Dead Heat Senate Seat Toss-up

MRC Logo

 

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Steve Mitchell, Cell: 248-891-2414

September 3, 2013

Land Leads Peters – Dykstra- Peters Dead Heat Senate Seat Toss-up

Land 39%-Peters 36% and Peters 39%-Dykstra 37%

EAST LANSING, Mich. — Although Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate seat in 20 years, the 2014 race is shaping up as one that could change the GOP’s luck.  U.S. Congressman Gary Peters trails former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (39%-36%) and is in a statistical dead heat with Holland Mayor Kurt Dykstra (37%-38%) according to the latest Mitchell Poll released today.  The automated telephone survey of 1881 likely 2014 General Election voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. on August 26, 2013 and has a margin of error of + or – 2.23%.

“Republicans have a real shot at taking Democratic Senator Carl Levin’s seat next year.  Terri Lynn Land has a three percent lead over Gary Peters while Kurt Dykstra, who is essentially unknown statewide, is in a statistical tie.  The fact that someone with relatively low name identification can be tied with a sitting congressman shows that both the Republicans and Democrats are getting the base vote.  Either Land or Dykstra could win this race with enough money behind them,” Steve Mitchell, Chairman of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

One of the surprises in the survey was support based on gender.  Among women, Peters has a five point lead over Land (38%-33%) and an eight point lead over Dykstra (40%-32%). However, the big difference for Land is her lead with men. Land leads with males by 14% (47%-33%) while Dykstra’s lead is just 5% (42%-37%).

“Men always identify more as Republicans than women, but I would have thought that Land would do better with her own gender than with the opposite sex,” Mitchell continued.

Other highlights of the poll include:

  • By party affiliation:
    • Among Democrats, Peters leads Land by 68%-10% and Dykstra by 76%-6%.
    • With Republicans, Land leads Peters by 77%-5%, Dykstra leads Peters by 78%-5%.
    • By union household:
      • Peters leads Land in Labor Households by 44%-33% and Dykstra by 48%-29%.
      • In Non-Labor Households, Land leads Peters 43%-31% and Peters leads Dykstra 48%-29%.
      • By race:
        • Among whites Land leads Peters 44%-32% and Dykstra leads Peters 41%-35%.
        • With African Americans, Peters leads Land by 61%-8% and Dykstra by 75%-7%.
        • Among other races Peters leads Land 33%-21% and Dykstra by 30%-24%.
        • By gender:
          • Land leads Peters overwhelmingly with males 47%-33% and Dykstra leads Peters with males by 42%-37%.
          • With females, Peters leads Land 38%-33% and Peters leads Dykstra by 40%-32%.

When comparing just Land to Dykstra our poll found:

  • By party affiliation:
    • With Republicans, Land leads Dykstra 40%-25%
    • By union household:
      • Land leads Dykstra in both Union and Non-Households.
      • By age:
        • Land leads Dykstra in all age groups except 40-49 year-olds where they are tied at (30%-30%).
        • By race:
          • Among whites, Land leads Dykstra 40%-26%.
          • With African Americans, Land leads Dykstra 29%-14%.
          • Among other races, Land leads Dykstra 43%-0%.

Posted in: Latest Poll Data, Release

Leave a Comment (0) →

Release: Obama Leads Romney in Michigan

MRC Logo

P R E S S  R E L E A S E

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: NOVEMBER 5, 2012

Contact: Steve Mitchell, Cell: 248-891-2414

Obama Leads Romney in Michigan

Obama 51%-Romney 46%

EAST LANSING, Mich. —On the eve of the election, President Barack Obama has a 5% lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to the latest Mitchell Poll conducted for the Michigan View. Obama leads 51%-46% with 2% voting for someone else and just 1% undecided. The automated telephone survey of 1305 likely voters in the November General Election was conducted November 4, 2012 and has a Margin of Error + or – 2.71% at the 95% level of confidence.

“With a 5% lead going into the election, President Obama is poised to win Mitt Romney’s home state of Michigan. Romney’s lead is fueled by strong support from the approximately 1/3 of the voters who have cast an absentee ballot. Among those voters, Obama leads by 16% (57%-41%) while Romney leads by 1% (49%-48%) among those who are definitely voting tomorrow,” Steve Mitchell, President of Mitchell Research and Communications Inc. said

Some of the key findings are as follows:

  • The gender gap is back. Obama leads with women by 13% (55%-42%) while Romney leads with men by just 3% (50%-47%).
  • Obama leads by a large margin with younger voters. Among 18-29 year olds the lead is 67%-23% and among 30-39 year olds it is 54%-45%. Obama leads 51%-47% with 50-59 year olds. Obama and Romney are tied with 60-69 year old voters (49%-49%). Romney leads with just two age groups, 40-49 year olds (53%-44%) and 70 and over voters (50%-48%).
  • Both Candidates have solidified their leads with their own party. Obama leads among Democrats 93%-6% while Romney leads with Republicans 93%-7%. Among Independents, Romney leads by 4% (48%-44%)
  • By race, Obama leads by 92%-7% with African-Americans while Romney leads with white voters by 7% (52%-45%). Among all other races, they are tied at 43%
  • Obama currently leads in labor households by 22% (60%-38%) while Romney leads in non-labor households by 4% (50%-46%). About 1/3 of the voters live in labor households and 2/3 in non-labor households.
  • Obama leads by an 88%-6% margin in the City of Detroit. In the Tri-County area outside of Detroit, Obama leads by just 1% (49%-48%) while the areas outside the Tri-County area Romney leads by 1% (49%-48%).

“In order to win Michigan, Romney had to do better in both the Tri-County area surrounding Detroit and out state Michigan. He also had to do better with men voters than he is currently doing. Romney is actually slightly more popular than Obama. Fifty-three percent have a favorable impression of Romney while 47% have an unfavorable impression of him. Fifty-two percent have a favorable impression of Obama while 48% have an unfavorable impression of him. Among undecided voters, 67% have a favorable impression of President Obama while just 39% have a favorable impression of Mitt Romney,” Mitchell said.

Voters were given a choice between four issues and asked which one was the most important on in the choice they made for president. The top issue was jobs and the economy (66%) followed by national security (14%), women’s issues (12%), and the auto bailout (8%). Although Romney leads by 14% with those who say the economy (56%-42%), Obama leads among those who say national security (52%-44%), those who say women’s issues (82%-12%) and those who say the auto bailout (77%-15%).

“There has been a great deal of discussion about what percent of the voters that turn out tomorrow will be Democrats and Republicans. According to our survey, the Democratic advantage in party affiliation is +7% (46%-39%). This is about half way between the 2004 voter turnout and the 2008 voter turnout. Despite the fact that he is leading, Obama won with this group of voters by 13% (55%-42%) in 2008. The Romney campaign is going to have to do a much better job than the Obama campaign in its Get Out the Vote efforts tomorrow if they are going to overcome a 5% margin. It looks as though Obama will win Michigan,” Mitchell said.

The survey also showed that U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow has a 14% lead over former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra (55%-41%).

-30-

Posted in: Latest Poll Data, Release

Leave a Comment (0) →