Clinton Leads Sanders by 15%

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Contact Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414        

September 27, 2015       

Clinton Leads Sanders by 15% – Lead Narrows to 7% With Biden in Three-way

(Clinton 35% – Biden 28% – Sanders 22%)

EAST LANSING, Michigan — Although former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (50%) has a majority of the vote in a two-way trial ballot test against Senator Bernie Sanders (35%), she has serious problems in Michigan if Vice President Joe Biden decides to enter the race according to a Mitchell-FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan.   The automated survey of 538 likely March 2016 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN Republican debate featuring the top 11 GOP candidates. The poll has a Margin of Error of + or – 4.2%.

“Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Bernie Sanders, but if Joe Biden gets into the race, and I think he will, it changes everything.  Even though Biden has yet to announce, he only trails Clinton by 7%, a very small margin.  The slow drip, drip, drip of negative publicity caused by the use of her own email system while secretary of state has clearly caused a steady erosion in her popularity.  Looking at our Michigan polling as well as national polling, I now believe that Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee and that if Vice President Biden enters the race, he will win, ”Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

First, a look at the two-way contest between Clinton and Sanders:

By age:

  • Sanders leads with voters under 50 by 48%-33%
  • Clinton leads 65%-23% with voters over 50.

Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 2 of 3

By gender:

  • Sanders leads with men 52%-40%.
  • Clinton leads with women 48%-30%.

By race:

  • The race is tied with white voters at 43%.
  • Clinton has a huge 71%-5% lead with African-Americans.

By area:

  • In Detroit, Clinton leads 69%-0%.
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Clinton leads 49%-42%.
  • In Oakland, Clinton leads 59%-28%.
  • In Macomb, Clinton leads 46%-32%.
  • In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Clinton leads 43%-21%.
  • In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Sanders leads 51%-41%.
  • In West Michigan, Clinton leads 50%-35%.
  • In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Clinton leads 55%-42%.

In a three-way contest between Clinton, Sanders and Biden:

By age:

  • Clinton and Sanders are tied at 31% with Biden at 21% among18-39 year olds.
  • Sanders (26%) has a slight lead over Biden (23%) and Clinton (22%) with 40-49 year olds.
  • Clinton leads Biden and Sanders (47%-29%-18%) with voters 50-59.
  • Clinton leads Biden and Sanders by a narrower margin with voter 60-69 (35%-28%-18%).
  • Biden leads Clinton and Sanders with 70+ voters (43%-42%-7%).

By gender:

  • Sanders and Clinton are tied at 31% with Biden at 21% among men.
  • Clinton (33%) leads Biden (23%) and Sanders (19%) among women.

By race:

  • Clinton (31%) leads Sanders (27%) and Biden (25%) with whites.
  • Clinton (40%) leads Biden (36%) and Sanders (5%) with African-Americans.

By area:

  • In Detroit, Biden (54%) has a big lead over Clinton (29%) and Sanders (0%).
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Sanders (37%) leads Clinton (34%) and Biden (22%).
  • In Oakland, Clinton (52%) has a big lead over Biden (16%) and Sanders (10%).
  • In Macomb, Clinton (59%) has a big lead over Biden (14%) and Sanders (9%).
  • In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, it is a statistical tie between Clinton (24%), Biden (22%) and Sanders (21%).
  • In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Sanders (33%) has a small lead over Clinton (31%) with Biden (22%) trailing in third.

Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 3 of 3

  • In West Michigan, Biden (42%) has a 12 point lead over Clinton (30%) with Sanders (16%) trailing.
  • In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Biden (34%) leads Clinton (29%) and Sanders (29%).

“Each of the candidates has pockets of strength, but it has to be stressed that Biden makes the race very close despite the fact he has not announced,” Mitchell concluded.

(The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll)

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Posted in: Political news, Release

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