What Happens to GOP Prez Winners After Iowa

The results from 2008 and 2012 in the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina GOP primaries show that winning Iowa is not necessarily an indication that you will either win the nomination or for that matter, the next state. Cruz says he is different because he has money and organization. Trump says Cruz stole Iowa, while Rubio says he is now the establishment candidate. The first two Post-Iowa polls show Trump +24 and +17 in New Hampshire, about where he has been for the last month prior to Iowa. Click on the links below to see graphs detailing the GOP primary results from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in 2008 and 2012.

 

2008 Results

2012 Results

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Governor Snyder Announces Suspended Refugee Efforts

November 17, 2015

EAST LANSING, MI- Governor Snyder announced on Sunday night that he would be suspending efforts allowing Syrian refugees to take shelter in Michigan. The statement was made in light of the terrorist attacks that occurred Friday night in Paris, France. Many Michigan citizens were appreciative of the swift decision by Snyder, whose goal is to make Michiganders feel safe in their homes. Snyder said that although he wants to stop any further efforts to relocate the refugees to Michigan, he will not send away the twenty Syrian refugees that have already been placed.  These refugees have gone through a comprehensive screening process lasting over a year, and Snyder said it will be up to homeland security if they want to vet the refugees any further. The issue is a contentious one with many Democrats who believe that this is the worst message we can send to Middle East countries at this time. They believe the United States hurts itself with other Arab countries when we bar the Syrian refugees from our shores.

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Supporters of Snyder’s decision to put a hold on allowing Syrian refugees into the state are now questioning how long the decision will last. They have been opposed to any Syrian refugees coming into our country since President Obama announced he would be doing so.  They say that there is no way of determining which ones are terrorists and point to the fact that one of the Paris terrorists was using a Syrian passport as proof of their assertion.  They want Michigan to do what Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin have done and oppose the Federal government’s stance on allowing refugees into America at all.

Supporters say the Governor’s current position is doing what it takes to keep Michigan citizens feeling as safe and secure as possible. In a statement released on his official Facebook page, Snyder called for the Federal government to conduct a “full review of security clearances and procedures for all refugees who have the potential to be placed in Michigan.” For now, it is the Governor’s hope that Syrian refugees will be denied access to the state until the Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Department of State can revise the security clearance procedures to be up to Michigan’s standards. However, since this is a federal issue, it is doubtful any state, no matter how opposed, can prevent the federal government from locating Syrian refugees in it if the U.S. government wants to do it.

*UPDATE 11/20/2015*

The controversy over whether the United States should take in refugees has been a major topic in media coverage over the past week. Since publishing the initial post three days ago after Snyder’s announcement, many polling agencies have collected public opinion data on what action the United States should take in helping refugees.

A poll conducted by Rasmussen on November 19th that found 60% of Americans oppose bringing refugees into the country, while just 28% are for bringing in refugees in. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. The number of Americans who agree with Obama’s overall plan to admit 10,000 refugees are similiar, with 63% opposing, 23% in favoring, and 14% undecided. Many of these opinions are stemming from the fear that giving refugees political asylum in America will result in our national security being compromised.

Previous to the terror attacks in Paris, Americans were already less confident about their security in the United States. A survey conducted on November 12th by Rasmussen found that 39% of Americans believe ISIS/Terrorists are winning the war on terror. Twenty-eight percent (28%) feel that the United States/Allies are winning, and 26% say neither.

 

 

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What’s New in What We Do

 

EAST LANSING, MI – Mitchell Research & Communications is integrating geofencing into their list of services available to clients. Geofencing is a new method of marketing used by political candidates, businesses, and various organizations to more precisely target potential voters or clients. Geofencing works by creating a “virtual fence” around a certain geographic area. When smartphone users enter that area and use applications on their phones, an advertisement is displayed with discounts, messages, alerts, or other information.

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Geofencing is used in many advertising campaigns for companies looking to gain product recognition, but it is also a pivitol tool in the political realm. Crafting specfic messages that will reach voters has never been easier with geofencing tools. Candidates can target certain districts, townships, and cities — or certain demographic groups such as voters under 40 — where they want their brand or platform to be heard. If a certain area is not familiar with a candidate, that candidate can use geofencing to increase their name recognition and promote their brand. Potential voters who are opted-in to geofencing can receive reminders about campaign events, voter registration areas, fundraisers, and information on when and where to vote. Geofencing is not only great for the candidate to promote their brand, it is also beneficial to those citizens who are looking to be more aware but who don’t want to go out of their way to do it. Traditional methods such as phone research or online polling are still viable ways to collect data for a client, but geofencing provides an innovative way to make contact with younger and technologically savvy voters. Geofencing is currently being used by many large corporations, but Mitchell Research is hoping to bring this technology to the local level.

For more information on the geofencing service provided by Mitchell Research & Communications, contact Steve Mitchell at (248) 891-2414.

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Rubio Leads Clinton by 3% in Michigan

 

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

Contact: Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414

September 27, 2015

Rubio Leads Clinton by 3% in Michigan

(Trump and Clinton tied; Clinton Leads Bush by 5%)

 

EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s lead has dropped from 9 percent over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in early August to 3% now (43%-40%) while Clinton and billionaire businessman Donald Trump are tied 42% while Clinton now leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by 5 percent (42%-37%) according a newly released Mitchell – FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan. The poll of N=1483 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN Republican Party Presidential Debate by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.5% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Although she has narrowed the lead against Rubio, Clinton is still trailing in Michigan, a state that has not voted for a Republican since 1988 when it favored then Vice President George H.W. Bush over Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.  Rubio is still stronger than Trump, who is tied with Clinton, while Bush has fallen behind by 5 percent after leading Clinton by a point in our August survey,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting;

By party:

  • Rubio (11%) and Trump (10%) are doing better with Democrats than Jeb Bush (6%).
  • Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 82% of the vote to Trump’s and Bush’s 74%. Rubio has fallen 5 percent with GOP voters; Trump has gone up 3 percent, while Bush has fallen 7 percent since August.
  • With key independents, Clinton is basically tied with Bush (30%-29%), however she trails Trump by a wide margin (46%-30%) and she trails Rubio by even a wider margin (39%-28%).

“Clinton continues to have a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 10%-11% of the vote to the stronger Republicans.  This is slightly better than in August, but she still continues to get only 4%-5% of the Republican vote against all three GOP candidates,” Mitchell said.

By gender:

  • Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She leads by 7% against Bush (43%-36%) and 12%% against Trump (47%-35%).  However, her lead against Rubio is only 2% (43%-41%).  .
  • With men, Rubio leads by 9% (46%-38%), Trump leads by 11% (48%-37%), and Bush actually is behind by 4% (37%-41%).

“Clinton is very weak with women.  Although she leads by the 10% margin most Democratic men lead by with women, her margin with the strongest GOP candidate is only 2%.  As a woman, she should be much stronger with female voters.  Meanwhile, she is very polarizing with men.  She trails by double digits among men with two GOP candidates, about twice the margin most Democrats traditionally lose by with men.  The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age:

  • Rubio trails by 1% with 18-39 year olds, but Clinton leads Trump by 18% and Bush by 22% with this group of the youngest voters.
  • However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 14% and Rubio and Bush by 4%.
  • All three Republicans lead with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump (10% each) are up by double digits while Bush’s lead is much smaller at 2%.
  • All three GOP candidates trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 7%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 11%.
  • With 70 + voters, Rubio leads Clinton by 7% while Clinton leads by a narrow 2% margin with Trump and Bush.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters.  Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds.  However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 20% worse than Rubio.  Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area:

  • Clinton leads by 80% in Detroit over all three Republicans.
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Clinton and Rubio are tied at 42%, but Clinton leads Trump by 5% and Bush by 15%.
  • In Oakland, Rubio leads (+15%) by a wide margin, Trump (+9%) by a narrower margin, while Bush is up by a very close margin (+4%).
  • In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by a good margins; Trump by 27%, Rubio by 10% and Bush by 9%.
  • In Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Midland/the Thumb Area, Rubio leads by 13%, Trump by 9%, and Bush trails by 1%.
  • All three Republicans are trail by big margins in Washtenaw, Monroe, Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan, where Clinton leads Trump leads by 33%, Rubio by 23% and Bush by 20%.
  • In West Michigan, Rubio is up 9% and Trump by 6% while Bush and Clinton are tied.
  • In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+23%) and Trump (+15%) are winning by strong margins while Bush and Clinton are tied.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan.  One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate.

“Of those surveyed, 35% have a favorable impression of Hillary Clinton while 54% have an unfavorable impression.  However, she is not alone in unpopularity.  Only 30% have a favorable impression of Jeb Bush while 52% have an unfavorable one.  Trump is worse than both, a 30%-57% favorable/unfavorable.  Only Rubio, with a 33%-34% favorable/unfavorable is not extremely unpopular.  Essentially, in match-ups between Clinton vs. Bush and Trump, partisan Republicans and Democrats are holding their noses while voting for the candidate from their party,” Mitchell concluded.

 [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

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Clinton Leads Sanders by 15%

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

Contact Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414        

September 27, 2015       

Clinton Leads Sanders by 15% – Lead Narrows to 7% With Biden in Three-way

(Clinton 35% – Biden 28% – Sanders 22%)

EAST LANSING, Michigan — Although former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (50%) has a majority of the vote in a two-way trial ballot test against Senator Bernie Sanders (35%), she has serious problems in Michigan if Vice President Joe Biden decides to enter the race according to a Mitchell-FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan.   The automated survey of 538 likely March 2016 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN Republican debate featuring the top 11 GOP candidates. The poll has a Margin of Error of + or – 4.2%.

“Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Bernie Sanders, but if Joe Biden gets into the race, and I think he will, it changes everything.  Even though Biden has yet to announce, he only trails Clinton by 7%, a very small margin.  The slow drip, drip, drip of negative publicity caused by the use of her own email system while secretary of state has clearly caused a steady erosion in her popularity.  Looking at our Michigan polling as well as national polling, I now believe that Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee and that if Vice President Biden enters the race, he will win, ”Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

First, a look at the two-way contest between Clinton and Sanders:

By age:

  • Sanders leads with voters under 50 by 48%-33%
  • Clinton leads 65%-23% with voters over 50.

Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 2 of 3

By gender:

  • Sanders leads with men 52%-40%.
  • Clinton leads with women 48%-30%.

By race:

  • The race is tied with white voters at 43%.
  • Clinton has a huge 71%-5% lead with African-Americans.

By area:

  • In Detroit, Clinton leads 69%-0%.
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Clinton leads 49%-42%.
  • In Oakland, Clinton leads 59%-28%.
  • In Macomb, Clinton leads 46%-32%.
  • In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Clinton leads 43%-21%.
  • In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Sanders leads 51%-41%.
  • In West Michigan, Clinton leads 50%-35%.
  • In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Clinton leads 55%-42%.

In a three-way contest between Clinton, Sanders and Biden:

By age:

  • Clinton and Sanders are tied at 31% with Biden at 21% among18-39 year olds.
  • Sanders (26%) has a slight lead over Biden (23%) and Clinton (22%) with 40-49 year olds.
  • Clinton leads Biden and Sanders (47%-29%-18%) with voters 50-59.
  • Clinton leads Biden and Sanders by a narrower margin with voter 60-69 (35%-28%-18%).
  • Biden leads Clinton and Sanders with 70+ voters (43%-42%-7%).

By gender:

  • Sanders and Clinton are tied at 31% with Biden at 21% among men.
  • Clinton (33%) leads Biden (23%) and Sanders (19%) among women.

By race:

  • Clinton (31%) leads Sanders (27%) and Biden (25%) with whites.
  • Clinton (40%) leads Biden (36%) and Sanders (5%) with African-Americans.

By area:

  • In Detroit, Biden (54%) has a big lead over Clinton (29%) and Sanders (0%).
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Sanders (37%) leads Clinton (34%) and Biden (22%).
  • In Oakland, Clinton (52%) has a big lead over Biden (16%) and Sanders (10%).
  • In Macomb, Clinton (59%) has a big lead over Biden (14%) and Sanders (9%).
  • In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, it is a statistical tie between Clinton (24%), Biden (22%) and Sanders (21%).
  • In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Sanders (33%) has a small lead over Clinton (31%) with Biden (22%) trailing in third.

Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 3 of 3

  • In West Michigan, Biden (42%) has a 12 point lead over Clinton (30%) with Sanders (16%) trailing.
  • In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Biden (34%) leads Clinton (29%) and Sanders (29%).

“Each of the candidates has pockets of strength, but it has to be stressed that Biden makes the race very close despite the fact he has not announced,” Mitchell concluded.

(The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll)

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Trump Leads with GOP Primary Voters in MI

 

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

September 19, 2015                       Contact: Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414

Trump Leads with GOP Primary Voters in Michigan

(Trump 26% – Carson 21% – Fiorina 12% – Rubio 11%)

EAST LANSING, Michigan — Donald Trump is leading his Republican challengers among those who would vote in the Michigan GOP Presidential Primary next year according to a Mitchell-FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan conducted last night. Trump with 26% leads Carson at 21% with Carly Fiorina in third with 12% and Marco Rubio in fourth with 11%.  Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are tied for fifth at 6%.  Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, and John Kasich are all in the low single digits. 11% of likely Republican Primary Voters were undecided.

The automated survey of 700 likely March 2016 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN debate featuring the top 9 candidates. The Poll has a Margin of Error of + or – 3.7%.

 

“Trump has a solid lead in Michigan with likely voters in next year’s Republican Primary, but he does not have the overwhelming lead here that he has in other states.  With so many candidates splitting up the vote now, the question remains as to whether or not Trump will gain support as the field eventually gets smaller, or whether those voters who support more traditional candidates will support anybody but Trump,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

Fiorina was overwhelmingly regarded as the winner of the CNN debate last Wednesday with 36% calling her the winner of the 9 way debate.  Trump at 17% was second followed by Ben Carson at 13%, Marco Rubio scored 8%, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz both came in at 3%, John Kasich got 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, and finally 0% of those surveyed said Scott Walker was the winner. 18% of the GOP Primary voters were undecided.  “Fiorina had a strong debate performance. However, that has not yet translated into a major uptick in her support amongst likely Michigan Republican Primary Voters. That could be due to the fact she is still a largely unknown candidate at this stage in the race,” concluded Mitchell.

Republican Primary Ballot Question:

Aug 10             Sept 18

Trump             20%                 26%

Carson              12%                 21%

Fiorina             15%                 12%

Rubio               10%                 11%

Bush                12%                   6%

Cruz                  8%                   6%

Kasich               8%                   4%

Huckabee         4%                   2%

Walker               4%                   1%

 

Winner of GOP Primary Debate:

Aug 10             Sept 18

Fiorina             N/A                  36%

Trump               21%                 17%

Carson              10%                 13%

Rubio               14%                   8%

Bush                  5%                   3%

Cruz                  8%                   3%

Kasich               8%                   2%

Huckabee         4%                   1%

Walker               3%                   0%

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Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in MI; Bush tied with Clinton

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

AUGUST 20, 2015 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414

Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in Michigan Trump and Bush tied with Clinton

EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has opened up a 9 percent lead over presumptive Democratic nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (45%-36%) while both Jeb Bush (41%-40%) and Donald Trump (40%-39%) have a narrow 1 per cent lead, well within the margin of error of the latest Mitchell-FOX 2 Michigan Poll. The poll of N=1,310 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night August 10, 2015, the night before Donald Trump spoke at a packed Republican Party rally in Birch Run, by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.7% at the 95% level of confidence.

“There are several important pieces of information in this poll: First, Hillary Clinton’s negative publicity has hurt her with Democrats, independents, women and younger voters. Second, the new face of Marco Rubio is much stronger at this point than either the new face of Donald Trump or the old name of Jeb Bush. Third, Trump is for real as a presidential candidate, he is polling as well as Jeb Bush, the brother and son of a Republican president and clearly the establishment candidate in Michigan,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications said. As is usually the case, the Republicans lead with white voters while Clinton leads with non-white voters, especially African-Americans who comprised 14% of the sample.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting; By party: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both get 12% of the Democratic vote while Trump gets 15%. Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 87% of the vote to Bush’s 81% and Trump’s 71%. However, the percentage of undecided Republicans is much higher with Trump (25%) than with Rubio (9%) and Bush (16%). Rubio leads with the key independent voters by 20% (48%-27%) while Bush leads by 11% (35%-24%) and Trump is tied (40%-40%).

“Clinton has a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 12%-15% of the vote to Republicans. Meanwhile, she is getting only 4% of the Republican vote against Rubio and Bush and 5% against Trump. She is also doing poorly among independents where she trails 11%-20% with Bush and Rubio and where she is tied with Trump,” Mitchell said.

By gender: Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She only leads by 4% against Bush and 5% against Rubio. Against Trump, she leads by 13%. With men, Rubio leads by 24%, Trump by 15%, and Bush by only 3%.

“With the most traditional candidate, Bush, there is very little difference by gender. However, there are much greater differences among Rubio and Trump voters. The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women. The percentage of undecided men, the voters most likely to vote for a Republican, is higher with men than women in all three trial ballot tests; with Bush, there are 6% more undecided men than women, with Rubio there are 8% more, and with Trump 9% more undecided men than women. Undecided men are far more likely to end up voting Republican than undecided women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age: · While Rubio leads by 21% with 18-39 year olds, Bush is only up 1% and Trump trails by 20%. · However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 12%, Rubio by 9%, while Bush trails by 16%. · All three Republicans are strong with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump are up by 27% and Bush by 21%. · All three trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 21%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 8%. · All three GOP candidates are behind with 60-69 year olds. Again, Trump is behind by a bigger margin, 15%, while Bush trails by 6% and Rubio by just 2%.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters. Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds. However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 40% worse than Rubio. Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic voters,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area: · Clinton leads by 90% in Detroit over all three Republicans. · In Wayne County outside Detroit, Rubio (+27%) and Trump (+25%) have strong leads while Bush trails Clinton (-7%). In Oakland, Rubio leads (+25%) by a wide margin, Trump (+6%) by a much narrower margin, while Bush (-6%) trails. In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by large margins; Rubio by 43%, Bush by 39%, and Trump by 30%. The big difference in Trump’s percentages is the much higher percentage of undecided voters, 26% for him as opposed to14% for Bush vs. Clinton and 7% for Rubio vs. Clinton. All three Republicans are strong in Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan where Trump leads by 23%, Bush by 20%, and Rubio by 18%. In West Michigan, Rubio is up 18%, Bush 13%, and Trump and Clinton are tied. In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+6%) and Bush (+4%) are ahead by small margins while Trump (-20%) is behind by a large margin.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan. One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate,” Mitchell concluded. [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

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Pollster Report Card for 2014 Michigan Elections

 

As a recognized Michigan pollster and the official pollster of Fox 2 Detroit TV for 2014, I have issued this pollster report card highlighting the 2014 Michigan elections.

Background

On Election Day November 4, 2014,  we issued a press release on a poll conducted Monday night, November 3, 2014 saying that Governor Rick Snyder and Mark Schauer were in a statistical tie in the race for governor.  The subtitle part of the release said … Snyder 48% – Schauer 47%.  We showed the actual number as Snyder 48.1% and Schauer 47.4%.  We had all three third party candidates getting about 1% of the vote.  The Monday poll showed Snyder’s margin increasing from +0.2% the night before.

We went on to say in the release the following: “At the end of the survey, voters were asked to name which candidate they would vote for if they had to make a choice without the option of being undecided.  In that question, Snyder led by 2 percent (49%-47%).”  Realclearpolitics.org used that percentage as our final projection … Snyder +2%.

In the press release we also reiterated our final percentages for U.S. Senate, attorney general and secretary of state from a survey conducted Sunday night.

Report Card

Here is our report card based on 99% of the vote:

 

Race                                Projected Margin           Actual Final Margin               Difference

Governor                         Snyder +2%                  Snyder +3.9%                        +1.9%

U.S. Senate                    Peters +12%                 Peters +13.4%                        +1.4%

Attorney General            Schuette +8%                Schuette +8%                            None

Secretary of State            Johnson +7%               Johnson +10%                           +3%

 

Based on a poll we conducted three weeks ago, we also projected Michigan Supreme Court Justices Brian Zahra and David Viviano along with Richard Bernstein would win their elections to the Supreme Court.  All three won.

We are very proud to have provided this type of accuracy to Fox 2 Detroit!Fox 2 logo

Wave Election

 The 2014 election was the fourth “wave election” in the last five election cycles.  Only 2012 was not.

Wave elections break at the end and they break to one party.  This election broke heavily for Republicans and led to the GOP gaining 7 U.S. Senate seats as of 5 AM Wednesday morning and the likelihood that they will end up winning 9 seats after the Louisiana run-off and final results in Alaska are tallied.

The GOP also gained another 12 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, taking their total to 242, one of the largest margins since World War II.

This election was a complete repudiation of President Obama and his polices and it spread beyond federal offices to state houses across the country.  It is the reason many gubernatorial races, such as that in Michigan, broke heavily on Tuesday in favor of Republican candidates like Governor Rick Snyder.

Our polling showed a close race on Monday night, with Snyder leading +2%.  He won with a margin of 3.9%.  This type of gain was seen across the country.  Here are some examples of gains by GOP gubernatorial candidates comparing the final Realcleapolitics.com poll averages to the actual final results:

Race                    RCP Final Average            Actual Final Margin            Difference

Michigan             Snyder +2.0%                 Snyder +3.9%                     +1.9%

Wisconsin           Walker +2.2%                 Walker +5.7%                     +3.5%

Georgia               Deal +4.6%                      Deal +7.9%                        +3.3%

Illinois                 Rauner -0.8%                  Rauner +4.8%                     +5.6%

Maine                  LePage +1.4%                LePage +3.8%                      +2.4%

Maryland             Hogan -9%                      Hogan +10%                       +19.0%

Florida                 Scott -0.4%                     Scott +1.2%                         +1.6%

Conclusion

Some who read my press release yesterday might be thinking our polling was wrong.  The final results show that is not the case.  The final Snyder margin increased from our final projection of +2% and his win was not as narrow as we thought it might be.  Michigan was like other states across the United States where the Republican wave helped GOP gubernatorial candidates win by larger margins than the polling showed they would.  The wave also helped the Michigan GOP increase its margin in the state house to a record tying 63 seats and 27 state Senate seats.

Obviously, the only way candidates can take advantage of waves like this is to run strong campaigns that put themselves in a position to win.  Then the wave pushes the winning margins out further than anticipated as we saw in Governor Snyder’s win.

Let me reiterate how proud I am of my team, led by James Lower, that helped me provide such accurate poll data to Fox 2 Detroit and all those that heard of our results!

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Peters Expands Lead over Land in MI U.S. Senate Race

P R E S S  R E L E A S E

Snyder, Schuette, and Johnson Lead by 4%
Peters Leads Land by 13%

October 2, 2014

EAST LANSING, Mich. — Congressman Gary Peters greatly expanded his lead over former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the Michigan U.S. Senate race, while Governor Rick Snyder maintains his lead over Democratic challenger, former U.S. Congressman Mark Schauer according to a Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll of Michigan. Attorney General Bill Schuette and Secretary of State Ruth Johnson both lead their Democratic opponents by 4%.

According to the Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll,Gov.Snyder leads Schauer by 4% (46%-42%). In a September 14th Mitchell Poll, the governor led 46%-41% while Peters led 43%-41%. In the September 29th poll, Snyder has 46%, Schauer 42%.
Libertarian Mary Buzuma 2%, U.S. Tax Payers Mark McFarlin 2%, Green Party Paul Homeniuk <1%, and Undecided 8%.

In the U.S. Senate Race, Peters has 49%, Land has 36%. Libertarian Jim Fulner 3%, U.S. Tax Payers Richard Matkin 1%, Green Party Chris Wahmhoff 1%, and Undecided 9%.

The automated survey of 1,178 likely voters in November’s General Election was conducted Sept. 29, 2014 by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. for Fox 2 News (WJBK-TV) in Detroit and has a margin of error + or – 2.86% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Governor Snyder’s lead has stabilized at around 4%-5%, where it has been for most of September, after dipping down to a one per cent lead in mid-July. However, we are picking up a tremendous amount of volatility in the United States Senate Race,” Steve Mitchell CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

“Two weeks ago we had Peters up by only 2%, today we are showing him up by 13%,” Mitchell added.

In the campaigns for Secretary of State and Attorney General, incumbent Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette leads Democratic challenger Mark Totten by a 4% margin (43%-39%) while incumbent GOP Secretary of State Ruth Johnson also leads Democrat Godfrey Dillard by 4% (41-%-37%).
Page 2 of 3 Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Poll Press Release 10/1/14

“Governor Snyder’s job approval of (51%) is still higher than his favorability (45% favorable- 42% unfavorable). Schauer has near even favorability at 35% favorable – 33% unfavorable,” Mitchell, said.

A look at key demographics in the Governor’s race shows:

• By Party Affiliation (42% identified themselves as Democrats and 37% as Republicans):

o Snyder support among GOP voters is 85%-8%.
o Schauer leads with Democrats 80%-11%.
o Among the key independent voters, Snyder is up 46%-33%.

• By Gender:

o Snyder leads with men 48%-44% and leads with women 45%-40%.

• By Race:

o Snyder leads with Caucasians 53%-37% but trails with African-Americans 80%-12%

• By Area Support :

o Schauer leads in Detroit 79%-8%.
o Snyder leads in Wayne County outside of Detroit 55%-27%.
o Snyder leads 49%-38% in Oakland County
o Snyder leads 61%-35% in Macomb County
o Schauer leads 52%-38% in Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Thumb Area
o Snyder leads 48%-44% in in Mid-Michigan including Monroe and Washtenaw
o Snyder leads 53%-38% in West Michigan
o Schauer leads 46%-32% in Northern Michigan/UP

“Snyder has maintained a consistent lead across the major demographics,” Mitchell said.

There has been a major move in the U.S. Senate race.

A look at key demographics in the U.S. Senate race shows:

• By Party Affiliation  (42% identified themselves as Democrats and 37% as Republicans):

o Peters has 87%-4% Democratic Party support
o Land has 77%-13% Republican Party support.
o Among the key independent voters, Peters leads 49%-23%.

• By Gender:

o Peters leads with men 49%-40%, Peters leads with women 50%-33%.

• By Race:

o Peters leads with Caucasians 46%-42%.
o Peter’s leads with African-Americans 81%-10%.

• By Area Support:

o Peters leads in Detroit 77%-8%.
o Peters leads 50%-39% in Wayne County outside of Detroit.
o Peters leads 54%-30% in Oakland
o Land leads 49%-39% in Macomb
o Peters leads 58%-35% in Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Midland/Thumb Area
o Peters leads 50%-36% in Mid-Michigan including Monroe and Washtenaw
o In her home area of West Michigan, Land leads Peters 46%-37%
o Peters leads 51%-28% in Northern Michigan/UP

“Peters has broadened his lead with both men and women. Peters seems to be doing well across the board,” Mitchell concluded.

Posted in: Polling

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