Scottish Independence Referendum Likely to Fail

The United Kingdom Will Stay United

By Steve Mitchell

Polls in the UK are showing that the election of Scottish independence referendum is a dead heat. The BBC tracking poll of polls shows that 50% are voting AGAINST the referendum while 45% are voting FOR it . However, the pollsters in the UK are excluding undecided voters. That’s a big mistake.

Undecided voters almost always vote no, especially on an issue as important as this. It’s hard to imagine someone who hasn’t made up their mind going into the polling booth and thinking … “hmmm … should I vote to end more than 300 years of Scotland being a part of England? Sure, why not!”

This is a very difficult decision and it will not be made lightly by Scottish voters. From my understanding of the UK polling, about 4%-8% of the voters are undecided. To win independence, almost all of the undecided voters would have to vote in FAVOR of the referendum, something I just don’t see happening. I would be surprised if even a third of the undecided voters end up supporting it.

In 1995, French Quebec wanted to withdraw from Canada and form a new country. The election was very close with the opponents winning with just 50.58% of the vote. However, polling in that race showed that 47% were FOR separation, 41% AGAINST, and 12% undecided on the eve of the election . Almost 10% of the 12% undecided voted “No” with just 2% of the undecided voting “Yes.” More than 80% of the undecided voters cast a ballot against separation from Canada.

In Scotland, unlike Canada, the NO vote is ahead. Therefore, if the poll data I am seeing is accurate, the Scottish Independence Referendum will fail. IF the polls are accurate, the margin could reach NO 55% and YES 45%, a landslide. In any case, IF the polls are accurate, the United Kingdom should stay united, with Scotland a part of it.

http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/poll-tracker

[1] http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.31.4063&rep=rep1&type=pdf

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Mitchell polling accuracy validated by RCP

Steve Mitchell, called Michigan’s most respected pollster by Detroit News Editorial Page Editor Nolan Finley, also has had his polling accuracy validated by results posted on the RealClearPolitics.com website.

RealClearPolitics.com, known as the premier polling aggregating site, has cited Mitchell Research’s accuracy in the past three election cycles.

For detailed results, click the links below.

2012

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

2010

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/mi/michigan_governor_snyder_vs_bernero-1407.html#polls

2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_mccain_vs_obama-553.html

 

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Mich poll: Snyder expands lead; Land closes gap

P R E S S   R E L E A S E

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  Sept 15, 2014                                                                                                                Contact: Steve Mitchell     248-891-2414

 

Snyder Leads Schauer by 5%   Peters Leads Land by 2%

Snyder 46% – Schauer 41%

Peters 43% – Land 41%

 

EAST LANSING, Mich. — Governor Rick Snyder expanded his lead over his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Congressman Mark Schauer, while Congressman Gary Peters’ maintains a slim lead over Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the U.S. Senate race according to the latest Mitchell Poll of Michigan.

According to the new Mitchell Poll, Snyder leads Schauer by 5% (46%-41%) while Peters leads Land by 2%. In the Governor’s Race, Snyder has 46%, Schauer 41%, Libertarian Mary Buzuma 4%, U.S. Tax Payers Mark McFarlin 2%, Green Party Paul Homeniuk 1%, and Undecided 6%. In the U.S. Senate Race Peters has 43%, Land 41%, Libertarian Jim Fulner 3%, U.S. Tax Payers Richard Matkin 2%, Green Party Chris Wahmhoff 3%, and Undecided 9%.  The automated survey of 829 likely voters in November’s General Election was conducted Sept.14, 2014 by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. and has a Margin of Error + or – 3.4% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Mitchell Research had intended to release a survey today that we conducted on Wednesday September 10th prior to President Obama’s speech to the nation regarding the conflict in the Mid-East. That poll showed Snyder leading by only 1 point, and Peters up by 8 points. However, because of changing poll data nationally, we decided to conduct a survey last night (September 14) to see if those events coupled with the increased television advertising by Snyder and Land might have changed the races in Michigan. They had. In fact, Snyder’s lead moved out to 5% while Peters’ lead narrowed to 2%,” Steve Mitchell CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

In the Senate race, Peters has a 35% favorable – 37% unfavorable rating while Land is at 38%-45%.

“Governor Snyder’s job approval of (55%) is still higher than his favorability (48% favorable- 41% unfavorable).  Schauer has a 36% favorable – 39% unfavorable,” Mitchell, said.

A look at key demographics in the governor’s race shows:

  • By party (43% identified themselves as Democrats and 38% as Republicans):
    • Snyder support among GOP voters has dropped to 87%-5%.
    • Schauer leads with Democrats 76%-10%.
    • Among the key independent voters, Snyder is up 47%-34%.
  • By gender:
    • Snyder leads with men 47%-43% and leads with women 46%-40%.
  • By race:
    • Snyder leads with Caucasians 52%-38% but trails with African-Americans 78%-15%
  • By area support:
    • Schauer leads in Detroit 63%-4%.
    • Snyder leads in Wayne County outside of Detroit 49%-36%.
    • Snyder leads 53%-38% in Oakland County
    • Snyder leads 54%-38% in Macomb County
    • Schauer leads 51%-41% in Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Thumb Area
    • Snyder leads 54%-37% in in Mid-Michigan including Monroe and Washtenaw
    • Snyder leads 49%-39% in West Michigan
    • Schauer leads 45%-32% in Northern Michigan/UP

“Snyder has increased his support with women voters, in the Detroit suburbs, while Schauer voters have moved to undecided. Although Snyder has increased his lead, the 3rd party candidates seem to be cutting into his margin,” Mitchell said.

There have also been changes in the U.S. Senate race.

A look at key demographics in the U.S. Senate race shows:

  • By party (43% identified themselves as Democrats and 38% as Republicans):
    • Peters has 80%-3% Democratic Party support
    • Land has 84%-5% Republican Party support.
    • Among the key independent voters, Land is up 40%-36%.
  • By gender:
    • Land/Peters tie with men 44%-44%, Peters leads with women 42%-37%.
  • By race:
    • Land leads with Caucasians 45%-40%.
    • Peter’s leads with African-Americans 74%-15%.
  • By area:
    • Peters leads in Detroit 63%-4%.
    • Land leads 43%-40% in Wayne County outside of Detroit.
    • Land leads 47%-42% in Oakland
    • Land leads 46%-42% in Macomb
    • Peters leads 52%-39% in Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Midland/Thumb Area
    • Land leads 45%-39% in Mid-Michigan including Monroe and Washtenaw
    • In her home area of West Michigan, Land leads Peters 44%-38%
    • Peters leads 45%-30% in Northern Michigan/UP

“Land’s advertising, plus a down turn in President Obama’s popularity seems to have dramatically changed this race since last week,” Mitchell concluded.

[The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the four candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Steve Quoted in Detroit News about John Dingell’s Retirement

John Dingell announced his retirement and will not be running for re-election this fall. John accomplished a lot in his long career and is said to go down in American political history. Steve has know John for quite some time now and although they do not agree on all political issues, he does consider him a good friend and really admires the work he has accomplished.

Steve stated, “Although I disagree with John on many issues, he is one of the finest men I know. Since 1955 he has served the people of his district and the people of Michigan with great distinction, great dedication, and great ability. Having done Flashpoint on WDIV-TV with his wife since 2001, I have got to know John well, I consider him a very good friend. No one in American history has been a part of Congress and a part of the history of this nation longer than John. He is a giant in the history of this country. His leaving is a great loss to all! I suspect now is Debbie Dingell‘s chance to serve!”

Steve also commented in The Detroit News, “With the exception of John Quincy Adams,” said Steve Mitchell, an East Lansing-based Republican strategist and consultant, “there’s no one with a longer participation in the affairs of the United States than John Dingell.”

Check out this full article from The Detroit News here: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140224/POLITICS02/302240052#ixzz2uLuz2HSB

 

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From the Reagan-Bush ’84 Campaign in Washington State comes MR&C

Our Chairman, Steve Mitchell, discusses how Mitchell Research & Communications came to be.

Reagan Bush 84

After working on the national staff of Reagan-Bush 84, where I was in charge of all voter programs and chief spokesperson for the President’s re-election campaign in the State of Washington, I returned to Michigan and formed Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. with offices and phone center in East Lansing.

Working on a presidential campaign had been quite an education for me, especially since it was a re-election race and I was dealing with the president and vice president coming into my state.  I observed and learned to operate at such a high level of sophistication that when I had clients later I could use the same methods and operational approaches for them as I did when working for the president.

Even though my presidential campaign was 30 years ago, the processes and how you handle strategic planning and working on crises has not changed.  Obviously, we did not deal with social media – I’ve had to learn that since.  One key trait I learned was to get the work done that is of the highest quality and to get it done on time. My ability to get things done quickly helped my parents meet President Reagan.

My Dad and Mom knew the president was coming to Seattle and wanted to know if they could get a good seat to see him if they flew up from Scottsdale, Arizona where they lived.  I said of course, but, I couldn’t guarantee if they would get to meet the president and shake his hand since I had not yet met the advance staff that would make that decision.

The advance team flew in four days before the event.  We had to build a big crowd and they chose a venue that would seat 20,000 people.  The team said it was going to be hard to assemble that many people because they couldn’t mail out invitations and tickets before the event because they didn’t have enough time.

This meeting was on a Monday night at 8 PM.  I asked when they would need the mail dropped at the post office if we were to mail out invitations and they said by 6 PM the next day, Tuesday.  I said let me make a couple of calls.  After talking to a printer I had been working with, he said he could get it done, and so did the mail house we had been using as part of the voter programs.  By 9 PM Monday, I told them I could do it.

At 5:45 PM Tuesday, less than 20 hours after hearing about it, the letters with tickets as well as envelopes were printed, stuffed, postage added and at the post office.  I did what I promised in lightning time.  We had a standing room only crowd when the President flew in and the advance team was ecstatic.

So, they insisted my parents go to the $5,000 reception and have their picture taken.  Since my mother loved Ronald Reagan from his acting days, since they were both hard-core Republicans, and since they had never met an American president before, it was one of the highlights of their life.  I have my picture and their picture with President Reagan on my office wall in East Lansing.

Every day when I see it, I think back to how I was able to give them one of the great moments of their life…and hope it made up for all the grief I gave them when I was younger!

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#ADBOWL

If you’re anything like me, I am not watching the Super Bowl to see the game, I am there to watch the commercials. Typical for a Com/PR major right? The 2014 Ads really got people talking, especially over Twitter. Some ads were controversial, some were downright witty, and some were just not good at all. Let’s take a look at some of what I think were the best and the worst ads of this years #ADBOWL

 

BEST

 

 

 

 

 

WORST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in: Ads, Uncategorized

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MR&C Employee Interviews!

Working alongside Steve, Suzie, and Sam are 3 tenacious, hardworking, and valuable employees that are ready to roll up their sleeves and tackle any task head on. I sat down and interviewed Evan, Paige, and Jacqui about their work here, their aspirations, their quirks, and what they think they bring to the table at Mitchell Research and Communications!

EVAN: AGE 21

 

Where are you from? Where do you go to school?

I am from Bloomfield Hills, MI and attend Michigan State University.

When did you start working at Mitchell? Why?

I began working as a phone researcher in fall of 2011 and then I became a supervisor in spring of 2012.

What do you bring to the table?

I like to believe that I am a hardworking, charismatic individual who my colleagues can rely on to get work done efficiently and in a timely manner.

What is a typical day like for you?

A typical day for me at Mitchell Research normally involves a meeting at the beginning to discuss what needs to be accomplished for the day with either Sam or Steve. After the intro meeting I’ll head on over to my computer to begin working on the assigned projects that can range from inputting data from a previous night’s phone research or making a power point that Steve will later present to a client.  If there happens to be a project going on then I will head in to supervise the phone researchers at night to ensure the project is on pace to be completed by its deadline.

What are your favorite parts of working here?

The work atmosphere at Mitchell Research is unlike any other work place I have ever experienced. Steve provides an outstanding work environment that I thoroughly enjoy being a part of on a daily basis.  I have learned an incredible amount of information regarding politics, market research and public relations since I first began working here in 2011 and continue to learn each and every day I come in to work.

What are some of your favorite projects you have worked on?

My favorite project I have worked on here at Mitchell Research was our Public Safety Millage Renewal Survey conducted for my home town of Bloomfield Hills in 2012.  It was my favorite project because I was able to learn vital information in regards to a millage that would affect my family and me. It was also incredibly rewarding knowing that the work I was doing here in East Lansing was helping out my friends and family back home by acquiring the thoughts and opinions on certain topics that had a large impact on many of their lives.

What are your career aspirations?

I am currently planning on graduating from Michigan State University with a degree in Political Science and I intend to pursue a career in the field of politics and the government.  Specifically, I’d hope to deal with foreign affairs among certain international agencies throughout the globe.

 

PAIGE: AGE 21

 

Where are you from? Where do you go to school?

I am from Geneva, IL which is a small suburb west of Chicago. I go to Michigan State University. I am currently a senior majoring in Communications with a specialization in Public Relations.

When did you start working at Mitchell? Why?

I started working here in the Fall of 2013. Steve actually came and spoke in one of my PR classes and I was really interested in his company. After class, I went up to him and introduced myself. I emailed him later that night asking for an interview and I am now an employee.

What do you bring to the table?

I think I bring a very unique aspect to this company. I consider myself a great writer so I draft up a lot of press releases, research documents, etc. My internships have all been in PR. Last year I interned for Ketchum PR in Chicago. I think my experiences there have brought a lot of beneficial qualities to this office.

What is a typical day like for you?

We all know that a typical day in PR is not possible, which is one thing that really drew me to this career. I meet with Sam every morning and discuss what I will be doing for the day. I have been put on a few different projects and have been working on them since the day I started here.

What are your favorite parts of working here?

I love working here because of the work environment; it feels like we are a close knit team that works well together to get things done. Of course, we have over 30 phone researchers as well. I also love the projects I have been put on and the work I have done so far. We take on a lot of political clients and that is something I truly enjoy doing and learning more about.

What are some of your favorite projects you have worked on?

One project in particular that I am working on is the Kent District Library Millage. It allows me to be creative and the topic really interests me. I have been on this project ever since we received the RFP and cannot wait to see the end results!

What are your career aspirations?

My career aspirations change almost every day. As of now, I am going to be heading to LA when I graduate to become a talent agent. I love working with political figures here at Mitchell and would like to continue that aspect of working with important people. I love PR because there are so many things you can do with it. From a PR agency, to a research firm, to becoming an agent, to in house PR firms- it gives you so many possibilities!

 

JACQUI: AGE 24

 

Where are you from? Where do you go to school?

I am from Lansing, MI. I attended Michigan State University where I received a B.A. in Political Science.

When did you start working at Mitchell? Why?

I started working at MR&C in January 2014 to pursue my interests in Michigan politics.

What do you bring to the table?

With a political science degree from MSU, internships with a Lansing lobbying firm and in the State Senate Majority Leaders office, in addition to experience working on a U.S. senate campaign, as well as working at an IT company specializing in election software; I bring to the table a plethora of political experience and insight.

What is a typical day like for you?

There is no such thing as a “typical day” at MR&C. With an ever-changing political landscape, every day offers exciting new opportunities and challenges.

What are your favorite parts of working here?

The people and the work. Our staff is great, always friendly and ready to tackle new projects. The work is interesting and ever-changing; never a boring or mundane day.

What are some of your favorite projects you have worked on?

Researching minimum wage proposals/initiatives and analyzing the benefits and impacts the legislation has had on constituents.

What are your career aspirations?

My future career aspirations include becoming a policy analyst, working at a think tank, and starting my own charity, foundation, or scholarship someday.

Maggie: Age 19

School: Michigan State University – James Madison College

Major: International Relations with a specialization in Political economics. I am applying to the business school once I have taken all of the requirements.

Why did you choose that major?

I am interested in understanding the impacts of how countries interact. Specifically, how government policies affect the nation’s economy. All relationships between counties are becoming increasingly mandatory for all different types of markets; furthermore knowing how different cultures impact their government will simplify how to make crucial decision in government or business. James Madison College teaches critical thinking and extensive writing that is focused on understanding these interdependences.

What made you decide to become a phone researcher at MR&C?

I needed a job, and I wanted one that would relate to public affairs because of my major.

What do you want to learn most while here?   

I want to learn how to create a survey that is unbiased and is an accurate reading of public opinion. Also I would like to be able to make general decisions based on the demographics and statistics from polling.

What do you like most about the MR&C office and staff?

Everyone is very welcoming and helpful.

What are your goals?

To be successful in my life. To learn from failures in my  life. And to be happy.

What do you want to do after you graduate?

After I graduate from Michigan State University I would like to attend law school to receive my JD and if I have the opportunity I would like to also receive my MBA. As a career, I would like to go into corporate law for a financial company.

 

 

 

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A New Way of Polling

Want to know who is going to win the presidential elections before they happen? This campaign done by 7-Eleven actually provides you with a pretty accurate guess. The “7-Election” campaign was used to predict the 2012 election and was right!

This is such a fun and creative method. When you pick up your daily coffee or soda from 7-Eleven you are given the choice of an Obama or Romney cup. Now if you’re planning on voting for Romney there is no way you would walk around with an Obama cup all day. The results of this campaign in previous elections have closely mirrored those of the last two elections, and accurately predicted the winner in all three!

The UPC codes were scanned and tallied at the end of each day and updated on the website. At the end of the 2012 election, more than 6 million candidate cups were tallied. Check out the stats below from the previous elections.

While at MR&C we prefer traditional polling methods, we know that sometimes you need to go outside the box to drive results. The creator of the campaign, Ketchum PR, has won many awards for this brilliant idea!

2000 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
George W. Bush* 21%** 47.9%
Al Gore 20%** 48.4%
2004 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
George W. Bush* 51% 50.7%
John Kerry 49% 48.3%
2008 Election 7-Election U.S. Voters
John McCain 46% 45.7%
Barack Obama* 52% 52.9%

Posted in: Latest Poll Data, Polling, Uncategorized

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Twitter Used For Polling?

As you may know, a lot of what Mitchell Communications and Research does is polling. We poll for our clients and their needs to make the best campaign and conduct the best research as possible. Polling can be conducted in many ways, but as social media becomes bigger, there is now a way to poll through Twitter…How amazing is that?

“Poll Everywhere” is a system used to create polls throughout the Twitter world and more.  The Poll Everywhere widget can be downloaded as a PowerPoint Slide and will live-update as each user votes. If you want to find out more about your audience, just ask them to take out their cell phones and text to 99503 their desired response.

The newest method for “Poll Everywhere” is even simpler. Just tweet to “@poll” the code that corresponds to your choice. So, if you want to choose Romney in a poll, tweet “@poll Romney”. It is as simple as that and brings results.

Accounts start free, but free accounts can only have 30 responses – and as pollsters we can tell you that 30 responses is not really a valid sample. Plans start from $15 a month to $1,400 a month. That plan, Platinum, allows 50 people in a business to gather up to 20,000 responses per poll and customize the responses and data (which may be worth the price tag for large companies). Regardless of price, the usefulness of Poll Everywhere is apparent, especially for anyone who gives presentations, performs market research, or has a lot of Twitter followers!

At MR&C, the polling system we use brings a lot more detailed results for analyzing. However, “Poll Everywhere” is great for companies trying to get simple feedback on their products, services and the uses really are endless. This system is great for general polling but if you want to receive more in depth information you must work with a research firm like MR&C!

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