Rubio Leads Clinton by 3% in Michigan


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Contact: Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414

September 27, 2015

Rubio Leads Clinton by 3% in Michigan

(Trump and Clinton tied; Clinton Leads Bush by 5%)


EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s lead has dropped from 9 percent over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in early August to 3% now (43%-40%) while Clinton and billionaire businessman Donald Trump are tied 42% while Clinton now leads former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by 5 percent (42%-37%) according a newly released Mitchell – FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan. The poll of N=1483 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN Republican Party Presidential Debate by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.5% at the 95% level of confidence.

“Although she has narrowed the lead against Rubio, Clinton is still trailing in Michigan, a state that has not voted for a Republican since 1988 when it favored then Vice President George H.W. Bush over Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.  Rubio is still stronger than Trump, who is tied with Clinton, while Bush has fallen behind by 5 percent after leading Clinton by a point in our August survey,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting;

By party:

  • Rubio (11%) and Trump (10%) are doing better with Democrats than Jeb Bush (6%).
  • Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 82% of the vote to Trump’s and Bush’s 74%. Rubio has fallen 5 percent with GOP voters; Trump has gone up 3 percent, while Bush has fallen 7 percent since August.
  • With key independents, Clinton is basically tied with Bush (30%-29%), however she trails Trump by a wide margin (46%-30%) and she trails Rubio by even a wider margin (39%-28%).

“Clinton continues to have a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 10%-11% of the vote to the stronger Republicans.  This is slightly better than in August, but she still continues to get only 4%-5% of the Republican vote against all three GOP candidates,” Mitchell said.

By gender:

  • Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She leads by 7% against Bush (43%-36%) and 12%% against Trump (47%-35%).  However, her lead against Rubio is only 2% (43%-41%).  .
  • With men, Rubio leads by 9% (46%-38%), Trump leads by 11% (48%-37%), and Bush actually is behind by 4% (37%-41%).

“Clinton is very weak with women.  Although she leads by the 10% margin most Democratic men lead by with women, her margin with the strongest GOP candidate is only 2%.  As a woman, she should be much stronger with female voters.  Meanwhile, she is very polarizing with men.  She trails by double digits among men with two GOP candidates, about twice the margin most Democrats traditionally lose by with men.  The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age:

  • Rubio trails by 1% with 18-39 year olds, but Clinton leads Trump by 18% and Bush by 22% with this group of the youngest voters.
  • However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 14% and Rubio and Bush by 4%.
  • All three Republicans lead with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump (10% each) are up by double digits while Bush’s lead is much smaller at 2%.
  • All three GOP candidates trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 7%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 11%.
  • With 70 + voters, Rubio leads Clinton by 7% while Clinton leads by a narrow 2% margin with Trump and Bush.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters.  Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds.  However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 20% worse than Rubio.  Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic candidates,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area:

  • Clinton leads by 80% in Detroit over all three Republicans.
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Clinton and Rubio are tied at 42%, but Clinton leads Trump by 5% and Bush by 15%.
  • In Oakland, Rubio leads (+15%) by a wide margin, Trump (+9%) by a narrower margin, while Bush is up by a very close margin (+4%).
  • In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by a good margins; Trump by 27%, Rubio by 10% and Bush by 9%.
  • In Flint/Saginaw/Bay City/Midland/the Thumb Area, Rubio leads by 13%, Trump by 9%, and Bush trails by 1%.
  • All three Republicans are trail by big margins in Washtenaw, Monroe, Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan, where Clinton leads Trump leads by 33%, Rubio by 23% and Bush by 20%.
  • In West Michigan, Rubio is up 9% and Trump by 6% while Bush and Clinton are tied.
  • In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+23%) and Trump (+15%) are winning by strong margins while Bush and Clinton are tied.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan.  One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate.

“Of those surveyed, 35% have a favorable impression of Hillary Clinton while 54% have an unfavorable impression.  However, she is not alone in unpopularity.  Only 30% have a favorable impression of Jeb Bush while 52% have an unfavorable one.  Trump is worse than both, a 30%-57% favorable/unfavorable.  Only Rubio, with a 33%-34% favorable/unfavorable is not extremely unpopular.  Essentially, in match-ups between Clinton vs. Bush and Trump, partisan Republicans and Democrats are holding their noses while voting for the candidate from their party,” Mitchell concluded.

 [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

Posted in: Political news, Release

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