Scottish Independence Referendum Likely to Fail

The United Kingdom Will Stay United

By Steve Mitchell

Polls in the UK are showing that the election of Scottish independence referendum is a dead heat. The BBC tracking poll of polls shows that 50% are voting AGAINST the referendum while 45% are voting FOR it . However, the pollsters in the UK are excluding undecided voters. That’s a big mistake.

Undecided voters almost always vote no, especially on an issue as important as this. It’s hard to imagine someone who hasn’t made up their mind going into the polling booth and thinking … “hmmm … should I vote to end more than 300 years of Scotland being a part of England? Sure, why not!”

This is a very difficult decision and it will not be made lightly by Scottish voters. From my understanding of the UK polling, about 4%-8% of the voters are undecided. To win independence, almost all of the undecided voters would have to vote in FAVOR of the referendum, something I just don’t see happening. I would be surprised if even a third of the undecided voters end up supporting it.

In 1995, French Quebec wanted to withdraw from Canada and form a new country. The election was very close with the opponents winning with just 50.58% of the vote. However, polling in that race showed that 47% were FOR separation, 41% AGAINST, and 12% undecided on the eve of the election . Almost 10% of the 12% undecided voted “No” with just 2% of the undecided voting “Yes.” More than 80% of the undecided voters cast a ballot against separation from Canada.

In Scotland, unlike Canada, the NO vote is ahead. Therefore, if the poll data I am seeing is accurate, the Scottish Independence Referendum will fail. IF the polls are accurate, the margin could reach NO 55% and YES 45%, a landslide. In any case, IF the polls are accurate, the United Kingdom should stay united, with Scotland a part of it.

http://www.bbc.com/news/events/scotland-decides/poll-tracker

[1] http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.31.4063&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Posted in: Political news, Polling

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