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Release: Obama Leads Romney in Michigan

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Contact: Steve Mitchell, Cell: 248-891-2414

Obama Leads Romney in Michigan

Obama 51%-Romney 46%

EAST LANSING, Mich. —On the eve of the election, President Barack Obama has a 5% lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to the latest Mitchell Poll conducted for the Michigan View. Obama leads 51%-46% with 2% voting for someone else and just 1% undecided. The automated telephone survey of 1305 likely voters in the November General Election was conducted November 4, 2012 and has a Margin of Error + or – 2.71% at the 95% level of confidence.

“With a 5% lead going into the election, President Obama is poised to win Mitt Romney’s home state of Michigan. Romney’s lead is fueled by strong support from the approximately 1/3 of the voters who have cast an absentee ballot. Among those voters, Obama leads by 16% (57%-41%) while Romney leads by 1% (49%-48%) among those who are definitely voting tomorrow,” Steve Mitchell, President of Mitchell Research and Communications Inc. said

Some of the key findings are as follows:

  • The gender gap is back. Obama leads with women by 13% (55%-42%) while Romney leads with men by just 3% (50%-47%).
  • Obama leads by a large margin with younger voters. Among 18-29 year olds the lead is 67%-23% and among 30-39 year olds it is 54%-45%. Obama leads 51%-47% with 50-59 year olds. Obama and Romney are tied with 60-69 year old voters (49%-49%). Romney leads with just two age groups, 40-49 year olds (53%-44%) and 70 and over voters (50%-48%).
  • Both Candidates have solidified their leads with their own party. Obama leads among Democrats 93%-6% while Romney leads with Republicans 93%-7%. Among Independents, Romney leads by 4% (48%-44%)
  • By race, Obama leads by 92%-7% with African-Americans while Romney leads with white voters by 7% (52%-45%). Among all other races, they are tied at 43%
  • Obama currently leads in labor households by 22% (60%-38%) while Romney leads in non-labor households by 4% (50%-46%). About 1/3 of the voters live in labor households and 2/3 in non-labor households.
  • Obama leads by an 88%-6% margin in the City of Detroit. In the Tri-County area outside of Detroit, Obama leads by just 1% (49%-48%) while the areas outside the Tri-County area Romney leads by 1% (49%-48%).

“In order to win Michigan, Romney had to do better in both the Tri-County area surrounding Detroit and out state Michigan. He also had to do better with men voters than he is currently doing. Romney is actually slightly more popular than Obama. Fifty-three percent have a favorable impression of Romney while 47% have an unfavorable impression of him. Fifty-two percent have a favorable impression of Obama while 48% have an unfavorable impression of him. Among undecided voters, 67% have a favorable impression of President Obama while just 39% have a favorable impression of Mitt Romney,” Mitchell said.

Voters were given a choice between four issues and asked which one was the most important on in the choice they made for president. The top issue was jobs and the economy (66%) followed by national security (14%), women’s issues (12%), and the auto bailout (8%). Although Romney leads by 14% with those who say the economy (56%-42%), Obama leads among those who say national security (52%-44%), those who say women’s issues (82%-12%) and those who say the auto bailout (77%-15%).

“There has been a great deal of discussion about what percent of the voters that turn out tomorrow will be Democrats and Republicans. According to our survey, the Democratic advantage in party affiliation is +7% (46%-39%). This is about half way between the 2004 voter turnout and the 2008 voter turnout. Despite the fact that he is leading, Obama won with this group of voters by 13% (55%-42%) in 2008. The Romney campaign is going to have to do a much better job than the Obama campaign in its Get Out the Vote efforts tomorrow if they are going to overcome a 5% margin. It looks as though Obama will win Michigan,” Mitchell said.

The survey also showed that U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow has a 14% lead over former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra (55%-41%).


Posted in: Latest Poll Data, Release

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