Posts Tagged primary

Clinton Leads Sanders by 15%

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Contact Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414        

September 27, 2015       

Clinton Leads Sanders by 15% – Lead Narrows to 7% With Biden in Three-way

(Clinton 35% – Biden 28% – Sanders 22%)

EAST LANSING, Michigan — Although former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (50%) has a majority of the vote in a two-way trial ballot test against Senator Bernie Sanders (35%), she has serious problems in Michigan if Vice President Joe Biden decides to enter the race according to a Mitchell-FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan.   The automated survey of 538 likely March 2016 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN Republican debate featuring the top 11 GOP candidates. The poll has a Margin of Error of + or – 4.2%.

“Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Bernie Sanders, but if Joe Biden gets into the race, and I think he will, it changes everything.  Even though Biden has yet to announce, he only trails Clinton by 7%, a very small margin.  The slow drip, drip, drip of negative publicity caused by the use of her own email system while secretary of state has clearly caused a steady erosion in her popularity.  Looking at our Michigan polling as well as national polling, I now believe that Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee and that if Vice President Biden enters the race, he will win, ”Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said.

First, a look at the two-way contest between Clinton and Sanders:

By age:

  • Sanders leads with voters under 50 by 48%-33%
  • Clinton leads 65%-23% with voters over 50.

Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 2 of 3

By gender:

  • Sanders leads with men 52%-40%.
  • Clinton leads with women 48%-30%.

By race:

  • The race is tied with white voters at 43%.
  • Clinton has a huge 71%-5% lead with African-Americans.

By area:

  • In Detroit, Clinton leads 69%-0%.
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Clinton leads 49%-42%.
  • In Oakland, Clinton leads 59%-28%.
  • In Macomb, Clinton leads 46%-32%.
  • In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, Clinton leads 43%-21%.
  • In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Sanders leads 51%-41%.
  • In West Michigan, Clinton leads 50%-35%.
  • In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Clinton leads 55%-42%.

In a three-way contest between Clinton, Sanders and Biden:

By age:

  • Clinton and Sanders are tied at 31% with Biden at 21% among18-39 year olds.
  • Sanders (26%) has a slight lead over Biden (23%) and Clinton (22%) with 40-49 year olds.
  • Clinton leads Biden and Sanders (47%-29%-18%) with voters 50-59.
  • Clinton leads Biden and Sanders by a narrower margin with voter 60-69 (35%-28%-18%).
  • Biden leads Clinton and Sanders with 70+ voters (43%-42%-7%).

By gender:

  • Sanders and Clinton are tied at 31% with Biden at 21% among men.
  • Clinton (33%) leads Biden (23%) and Sanders (19%) among women.

By race:

  • Clinton (31%) leads Sanders (27%) and Biden (25%) with whites.
  • Clinton (40%) leads Biden (36%) and Sanders (5%) with African-Americans.

By area:

  • In Detroit, Biden (54%) has a big lead over Clinton (29%) and Sanders (0%).
  • In Wayne County outside Detroit, Sanders (37%) leads Clinton (34%) and Biden (22%).
  • In Oakland, Clinton (52%) has a big lead over Biden (16%) and Sanders (10%).
  • In Macomb, Clinton (59%) has a big lead over Biden (14%) and Sanders (9%).
  • In Saginaw, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, the Thumb, it is a statistical tie between Clinton (24%), Biden (22%) and Sanders (21%).
  • In Washtenaw, Monroe, Mid-Michigan, Sanders (33%) has a small lead over Clinton (31%) with Biden (22%) trailing in third.

Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Democrats Page 3 of 3

  • In West Michigan, Biden (42%) has a 12 point lead over Clinton (30%) with Sanders (16%) trailing.
  • In Northern MI/Upper Peninsula, Biden (34%) leads Clinton (29%) and Sanders (29%).

“Each of the candidates has pockets of strength, but it has to be stressed that Biden makes the race very close despite the fact he has not announced,” Mitchell concluded.

(The survey must be referred to as a Mitchell/FOX 2 Detroit Poll)

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Trump Leads with GOP Primary Voters in MI

 

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September 19, 2015                       Contact: Steve Mitchell – (248) 891-2414

Trump Leads with GOP Primary Voters in Michigan

(Trump 26% – Carson 21% – Fiorina 12% – Rubio 11%)

EAST LANSING, Michigan — Donald Trump is leading his Republican challengers among those who would vote in the Michigan GOP Presidential Primary next year according to a Mitchell-FOX 2 Detroit Poll of Michigan conducted last night. Trump with 26% leads Carson at 21% with Carly Fiorina in third with 12% and Marco Rubio in fourth with 11%.  Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are tied for fifth at 6%.  Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, and John Kasich are all in the low single digits. 11% of likely Republican Primary Voters were undecided.

The automated survey of 700 likely March 2016 Michigan Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications September 18, 2015, two nights after the CNN debate featuring the top 9 candidates. The Poll has a Margin of Error of + or – 3.7%.

 

“Trump has a solid lead in Michigan with likely voters in next year’s Republican Primary, but he does not have the overwhelming lead here that he has in other states.  With so many candidates splitting up the vote now, the question remains as to whether or not Trump will gain support as the field eventually gets smaller, or whether those voters who support more traditional candidates will support anybody but Trump,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

Fiorina was overwhelmingly regarded as the winner of the CNN debate last Wednesday with 36% calling her the winner of the 9 way debate.  Trump at 17% was second followed by Ben Carson at 13%, Marco Rubio scored 8%, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz both came in at 3%, John Kasich got 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, and finally 0% of those surveyed said Scott Walker was the winner. 18% of the GOP Primary voters were undecided.  “Fiorina had a strong debate performance. However, that has not yet translated into a major uptick in her support amongst likely Michigan Republican Primary Voters. That could be due to the fact she is still a largely unknown candidate at this stage in the race,” concluded Mitchell.

Republican Primary Ballot Question:

Aug 10             Sept 18

Trump             20%                 26%

Carson              12%                 21%

Fiorina             15%                 12%

Rubio               10%                 11%

Bush                12%                   6%

Cruz                  8%                   6%

Kasich               8%                   4%

Huckabee         4%                   2%

Walker               4%                   1%

 

Winner of GOP Primary Debate:

Aug 10             Sept 18

Fiorina             N/A                  36%

Trump               21%                 17%

Carson              10%                 13%

Rubio               14%                   8%

Bush                  5%                   3%

Cruz                  8%                   3%

Kasich               8%                   2%

Huckabee         4%                   1%

Walker               3%                   0%

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Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in MI; Bush tied with Clinton

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AUGUST 20, 2015 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414

Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in Michigan Trump and Bush tied with Clinton

EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has opened up a 9 percent lead over presumptive Democratic nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (45%-36%) while both Jeb Bush (41%-40%) and Donald Trump (40%-39%) have a narrow 1 per cent lead, well within the margin of error of the latest Mitchell-FOX 2 Michigan Poll. The poll of N=1,310 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night August 10, 2015, the night before Donald Trump spoke at a packed Republican Party rally in Birch Run, by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.7% at the 95% level of confidence.

“There are several important pieces of information in this poll: First, Hillary Clinton’s negative publicity has hurt her with Democrats, independents, women and younger voters. Second, the new face of Marco Rubio is much stronger at this point than either the new face of Donald Trump or the old name of Jeb Bush. Third, Trump is for real as a presidential candidate, he is polling as well as Jeb Bush, the brother and son of a Republican president and clearly the establishment candidate in Michigan,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications said. As is usually the case, the Republicans lead with white voters while Clinton leads with non-white voters, especially African-Americans who comprised 14% of the sample.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting; By party: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both get 12% of the Democratic vote while Trump gets 15%. Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 87% of the vote to Bush’s 81% and Trump’s 71%. However, the percentage of undecided Republicans is much higher with Trump (25%) than with Rubio (9%) and Bush (16%). Rubio leads with the key independent voters by 20% (48%-27%) while Bush leads by 11% (35%-24%) and Trump is tied (40%-40%).

“Clinton has a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 12%-15% of the vote to Republicans. Meanwhile, she is getting only 4% of the Republican vote against Rubio and Bush and 5% against Trump. She is also doing poorly among independents where she trails 11%-20% with Bush and Rubio and where she is tied with Trump,” Mitchell said.

By gender: Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She only leads by 4% against Bush and 5% against Rubio. Against Trump, she leads by 13%. With men, Rubio leads by 24%, Trump by 15%, and Bush by only 3%.

“With the most traditional candidate, Bush, there is very little difference by gender. However, there are much greater differences among Rubio and Trump voters. The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women. The percentage of undecided men, the voters most likely to vote for a Republican, is higher with men than women in all three trial ballot tests; with Bush, there are 6% more undecided men than women, with Rubio there are 8% more, and with Trump 9% more undecided men than women. Undecided men are far more likely to end up voting Republican than undecided women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age: · While Rubio leads by 21% with 18-39 year olds, Bush is only up 1% and Trump trails by 20%. · However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 12%, Rubio by 9%, while Bush trails by 16%. · All three Republicans are strong with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump are up by 27% and Bush by 21%. · All three trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 21%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 8%. · All three GOP candidates are behind with 60-69 year olds. Again, Trump is behind by a bigger margin, 15%, while Bush trails by 6% and Rubio by just 2%.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters. Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds. However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 40% worse than Rubio. Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic voters,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area: · Clinton leads by 90% in Detroit over all three Republicans. · In Wayne County outside Detroit, Rubio (+27%) and Trump (+25%) have strong leads while Bush trails Clinton (-7%). In Oakland, Rubio leads (+25%) by a wide margin, Trump (+6%) by a much narrower margin, while Bush (-6%) trails. In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by large margins; Rubio by 43%, Bush by 39%, and Trump by 30%. The big difference in Trump’s percentages is the much higher percentage of undecided voters, 26% for him as opposed to14% for Bush vs. Clinton and 7% for Rubio vs. Clinton. All three Republicans are strong in Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan where Trump leads by 23%, Bush by 20%, and Rubio by 18%. In West Michigan, Rubio is up 18%, Bush 13%, and Trump and Clinton are tied. In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+6%) and Bush (+4%) are ahead by small margins while Trump (-20%) is behind by a large margin.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan. One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate,” Mitchell concluded. [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

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