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Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in MI; Bush tied with Clinton

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AUGUST 20, 2015 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414

Rubio Leads Clinton by 9% in Michigan Trump and Bush tied with Clinton

EAST LANSING, Mich. —Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has opened up a 9 percent lead over presumptive Democratic nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (45%-36%) while both Jeb Bush (41%-40%) and Donald Trump (40%-39%) have a narrow 1 per cent lead, well within the margin of error of the latest Mitchell-FOX 2 Michigan Poll. The poll of N=1,310 likely voters in the 2016 General Election was conducted Monday night August 10, 2015, the night before Donald Trump spoke at a packed Republican Party rally in Birch Run, by Mitchell Research & Communications and has a Margin of Error of + or – 2.7% at the 95% level of confidence.

“There are several important pieces of information in this poll: First, Hillary Clinton’s negative publicity has hurt her with Democrats, independents, women and younger voters. Second, the new face of Marco Rubio is much stronger at this point than either the new face of Donald Trump or the old name of Jeb Bush. Third, Trump is for real as a presidential candidate, he is polling as well as Jeb Bush, the brother and son of a Republican president and clearly the establishment candidate in Michigan,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications said. As is usually the case, the Republicans lead with white voters while Clinton leads with non-white voters, especially African-Americans who comprised 14% of the sample.

Some of the crosstabs are very interesting; By party: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush both get 12% of the Democratic vote while Trump gets 15%. Rubio is strongest with Republicans getting 87% of the vote to Bush’s 81% and Trump’s 71%. However, the percentage of undecided Republicans is much higher with Trump (25%) than with Rubio (9%) and Bush (16%). Rubio leads with the key independent voters by 20% (48%-27%) while Bush leads by 11% (35%-24%) and Trump is tied (40%-40%).

“Clinton has a real problem with Democrats where she is giving up between 12%-15% of the vote to Republicans. Meanwhile, she is getting only 4% of the Republican vote against Rubio and Bush and 5% against Trump. She is also doing poorly among independents where she trails 11%-20% with Bush and Rubio and where she is tied with Trump,” Mitchell said.

By gender: Clinton is much weaker that one would think among women voters. She only leads by 4% against Bush and 5% against Rubio. Against Trump, she leads by 13%. With men, Rubio leads by 24%, Trump by 15%, and Bush by only 3%.

“With the most traditional candidate, Bush, there is very little difference by gender. However, there are much greater differences among Rubio and Trump voters. The appeal Rubio has is with men voters while holding the margin close with women. The percentage of undecided men, the voters most likely to vote for a Republican, is higher with men than women in all three trial ballot tests; with Bush, there are 6% more undecided men than women, with Rubio there are 8% more, and with Trump 9% more undecided men than women. Undecided men are far more likely to end up voting Republican than undecided women,” Mitchell continued.

There are huge differences by age: · While Rubio leads by 21% with 18-39 year olds, Bush is only up 1% and Trump trails by 20%. · However, with 40-49 year olds, Trump leads Clinton by 12%, Rubio by 9%, while Bush trails by 16%. · All three Republicans are strong with 50-59 year olds. Rubio and Trump are up by 27% and Bush by 21%. · All three trail with 60-69 year olds. Trump is down by 21%, Rubio by 9% and Bush by 8%. · All three GOP candidates are behind with 60-69 year olds. Again, Trump is behind by a bigger margin, 15%, while Bush trails by 6% and Rubio by just 2%.

“There is great volatility by age, especially with young voters. Rubio is strongest with young voters, especially 18-39 year olds, while Trump does well with 40-49 year olds. However, Trump has a long way to go with the youngest block of voters where he does 40% worse than Rubio. Normally, younger voters are more likely to support Democratic voters,” Mitchell said.

There are also differences by area: · Clinton leads by 90% in Detroit over all three Republicans. · In Wayne County outside Detroit, Rubio (+27%) and Trump (+25%) have strong leads while Bush trails Clinton (-7%). In Oakland, Rubio leads (+25%) by a wide margin, Trump (+6%) by a much narrower margin, while Bush (-6%) trails. In Macomb, all three GOP candidates lead by large margins; Rubio by 43%, Bush by 39%, and Trump by 30%. The big difference in Trump’s percentages is the much higher percentage of undecided voters, 26% for him as opposed to14% for Bush vs. Clinton and 7% for Rubio vs. Clinton. All three Republicans are strong in Lansing/Jackson/Mid-Michigan where Trump leads by 23%, Bush by 20%, and Rubio by 18%. In West Michigan, Rubio is up 18%, Bush 13%, and Trump and Clinton are tied. In Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula, Rubio (+6%) and Bush (+4%) are ahead by small margins while Trump (-20%) is behind by a large margin.

“Just as we saw with gender, party affiliation, and age, there are big differences in the path Republicans can take to try to win Michigan. One thing is very clear; at this time Hillary Clinton is a weakened candidate,” Mitchell concluded. [The poll was conducted by Mitchell Research for FOX 2 Detroit and was not commissioned or paid for by any of the candidates or by any organizations supporting any of the candidates.]

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